End of Days for Assad?
Michael Bröning, Tony Badran, and Mara E. Karlin and Andrew J. Tabler on the increasingly brutal crackdown in Syria, the durability of the Assad regime and what, if anything, the United States can do to bring the crisis to a peaceful end.
MICHAEL BRÖNING is Director of the East Jerusalem office of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, a German political foundation affiliated with Germany’s Social Democratic Party. He is the author of The Politics of Change in Palestine: State-Building and Non-Violent Resistance. TONY BADRAN is a Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. MARA E. KARLIN was Levant Director at the Pentagon in 2006-7 and Special Assistant to the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in 2007-9. ANDREW J. TABLER is Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of the forthcoming book In the Lion’s Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington’s Battle With Syria.
From the new Foreign Affairs/CFR eBook, The New Arab Revolt, a translation of the Syrian president's most important statement on the uprisings in his country.
When violence first erupted in Syria, the EU responded carefully, using sanctions to target members of Assad's government in Damascus. Since, European officials have ditched those concerns and moved toward heavy, or comprehensive, sanctions. The problem is that they will hurt the Syrian people more than the regime.
Cracks in the House of Assad
Why a Supposedly Stable Regime Looks Fragile
Michael Bröning
Recent protests have shaken Bashar al-Assad's rule more than seemed possible two months ago. Contrary to expectations, his use of violence has not deterred demonstrators and his promises of reform have not appeased them.
Assad Won't Reform
What the Recent Violence Means for Syria (and the United States)
Tony Badran
Some argue that Bashar al-Assad could still appease protesters through reforms. But anger is now far too widespread for such measures to work.
Obama's Push-Pull Strategy
How Washington Should Plan for a Post-Assad Syria
Mara E. Karlin and Andrew J. Tabler
It is time for Washington to plan for a Syria without the Assad regime as it currently exists. To do so, Washington should try to push Assad from power while pulling in a new leadership.
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With Bashar al-Assad's regime on the brink of collapse, Hezbollah stands to lose a close ally. And by supporting Damascus' repression, the organization has compromised its reputation in a region gripped by anti-autocratic fervor. Given that, an off-balance Hezbollah may well shift gears, focusing less on its regional ambitions and more on domestic Lebanese politics.
Throughout the year, Assad relied on Iran and Russia to block international intervention, hoping to buy time to quash the protests without interference. It's not working -- but he has no other options.
After almost two years of bloodletting in Syria, there is little chance that negotiations of the kind UN peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has been urging would end the conflict. More likely, they would prolong it. And worse, they would perpetuate Bashar al-Assad’s favorite strategy of fanning fears of rebel sectarianism and extremism to dissuade the world from intervening against him.
