Fall 1986

Fall 1986
65, 1


Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

Failure on the part of the superpowers to negotiate on strategic nuclear weapons could bring about the end of arms control as a tool of international politics. Various technical and political problems with 'deep cuts' are outlined, and cuts of between 25% and 30% are advocated as sufficient to allay public concern, but not so great as to put deterrence in jeopardy. Internal debate on SDI should not hinder this process.

John Lukacs

Offers "an argument for the necessity of an historical perspective" in the analysis of Soviet conduct, tracing the competition between Soviet communism and Soviet state nationalism from 1917 to the present day, with Stalin's purges of 1937-39 seen as the turning point -- "the rise of a state, rather than party, bureaucracy". Soviet conduct since WW2 has been dominated by geo-political considerations, not ideology. The American perception of an ideologically-driven Soviet Union is dangerous.

A. Doak Barnett

An extensive review of political and economic reform in China a decade after Mao's departure. The new personnel policies, the changes to the bureaucracy, and the success (to date) of economic measures are explained. China is heading for liberalized authoritarianism and market socialism, and the generation of leaders after Deng is likely to maintain this course.

Bernard K. Gordon

Vietnam's occupation of Cambodia poses problems for US foreign policy in the region. The USA should cease to take the lead from ASEAN and should pursue a policy taking greater care of US interests, in the light of the Soviet involvement in Vietnam (particularly at Cam Ranh). The USA must be pragmatic and move forward from policies based on the experience of the 1970s. Some normalization of relations with Vietnam is recommended. China's attitude may make all the difference to the solution of the Cambodian question, but the Chinese are seen as having such an interest in maintaining good relations with the USA that they would not jeopardize them for the sake of Cambodia.

Walter Laqueur

Comments on (1) the difficulty of obtaining a widely-accepted definition of terrorism (2) the response to terrorism by democratic states (3) the particular case of state-sponsored terrorism. Stress that terrorism "makes a great noise, but so far it has not been very destructive".

José Sarney

President Sarney tells of his unexpected accession after the illness of Tancredo Neves, and explains the introduction of new political structures, the action taken on Brazil's foreign debt, and the Cruzado plan to reform the economy. He has a new vision for Brazil and expects the USA to share it.

Jorge Domínguez

Castro has embarked on a programme of economic re-centralization to encourage the economy, and a new socialist ideological drive to encourage the people. Cuba has thus turned back from the trend of communist countries to graft at least some capitalist methods on to their economies. Internal troubles are forecast as a result of this. Cuba's partly-homegrown foreign policy, in particular its relations with the USA and the USSR, is also discussed.

A. James McAdams

Sets out the development of the GDR-FRG relationship since 1979. The GDR has achieved a new status in the relationship, and is now in a position to drive harder bargains.

Malcolm Fraser and Olusegun Obasanjo

"South African government is not ready to and has no intention of negotiating in good faith". Thus Western sanctions are needed to prevent more violence. Specific steps are proposed, including (1) denying trade credits (2) freezing South African accounts overseas (3) banning imports of minerals and food. The usual arguments against sanctions are repudiated.

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