Winter 1989/90

Winter 1989/90
68, 5

Essays

Essay
Zbigniew Brzezinski

The collapse of communism across Eastern Europe has created the dangers of nationalist competition and chauvinism. The West should encourage (1) the former 'satellites' to develop pluralist constitutions and to move towards closer association with the EC (2) "the eventual transformation of the Soviet Union -- which in reality is a great Russian empire -- into a genuine voluntary confederation or commonwealth". See also 1990:00167.

Essay
Jerry F. Hough

"Bolshevism was the unnatural product of a dislocated population at the beginning of the century", and conditions now favour "the return home of Russians to Europe". Soviet society has matured, with an educated middle class demanding better material conditions and closer links with the West, and less willing to tolerate the patent failure of one-party rule. This coincides with the view of the Soviet leadership, which sees the prime threat to their union as coming from Asia. Gorbachev's policy is one of 'controlled chaos', which aims to balance the public's desire for progress against its fear of a break-up of the union.

Essay
Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

Freed from fixation on the struggle against the USSR, the USA "will need to think more broadly about the role of arms control in world politics", and will find itself sharing the same concerns as the USSR in respect of weapons and technology proliferation. Offers guidelines for US foreign policy (1) set realistic goals (2) co-operate with a reforming USSR while taking steps to reduce the risk of deteriorating relations should a counter-reformation occur.

Essay
Anne-Marie Burley

Recognition of the GDR by the FRG would be a "political masterstroke", in which merely formal separation would be outweighed by substantive unity on various social and economic issues. See also Margarita Mathiopoulos 'Peace would settle the German question' IHT 1 Nov 1989 p6.

Essay
Jeffrey E. Garten

For over half a century Japan and Germany have been at the heart of America's international preoccupations. After a long and destructive war against both countries, the United States worked exhaustively to help its two erstwhile enemies recover and build democratic societies secure under the American defense umbrella. From the late 1960s to the mid-1980s, victor and vanquished moved to a more balanced relationship, especially in trade and finance. Today, in one of history's great role reversals, Tokyo and Bonn have become Washington's fierce trading rivals and also its primary bankers.

Essay
Anthony Hartley

Domestic political dissatisfaction with the premiership of Mrs Thatcher is largely confined to 'the chattering classes'. Her ten-year domination of British politics shows few signs of ending. The expression 'chattering classes' often expresses the contempt of the insider, who knows, for the outsider, who has to think

Essay
Amos Perlmutter

With the 'intifadeh', the Palestinians have emulated "the spirit and strategy of classical Zionism". For Israelis, it represents the poisoning of a dream, and imposes the dilemma of 'territory or peace' upon "the world's only fortress democracy". The essential basis for a settlement is (1) withdrawal from the territories occupied since 1967 (2) tangible security guarantees (3) partition of sovereignty within an Israeli-Jordanian- Palestinian confederation.

Essay
Shireen T. Hunter

The moderates have a mandate in respect of economic policy, but are vulnerable to the hard-line anti-Western radicals in respect of foreign policy. The USA can do little but be cautious so as not to endanger the moderates' position.

Essay
Barnett R. Rubin

The Afghan people are faced with "the unhappy alternatives of a government they reject and a resistance they fear".

Essay
Pamela Constable and Arturo Valenzuela

Chile once boasted a longer history of stable democratic rule than most of its neighbors and much of Western Europe. Now it is the last major country on the South American continent to return to civilian government after a wave of authoritarianism. In December Chileans will have elected a new president after 16 years in the formidable grip of General Augusto Pinochet Ugarte. That election should set U.S.-Chilean relations, plagued by a history of intervention and mistrust, on a more constructive, cooperative course.

Essay
Linda S. Robinson

Describes how Gen Noriega, a former chief of intelligence, has subverted Panamanian democracy, and continues to cling to power despite strenuous US efforts to dislodge him. US options are now reduced to two -- drastic military action, or acquiescence.

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