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Assesses the effects of Iraq's annexation of Kuwait on the unity of the Arab world, and the recognition among Arab elite opinion generally that US assistance will be necessary to advance Arab interests. Professor of Middle Eastern studies, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University.
Predicts that oil prices will rise sharply in the 1990s, with "more bargaining leverage again falling into the hands of exporting countries". Whatever the outcome of the Kuwait crisis, OPEC will never be the same again. For French version, see Edward L Morse 'La révolution pétrolière à venir' Politique Étrangère 55/4 Winter 1990 pp793-798.
Explains how (1) neither India nor Pakistan could expect to benefit from a war over Kashmir (2) nevertheless their pre-emptive defence postures create the risk of war breaking out through inadvertence, miscalculation or misperception.
In the post-cold war era, US security will increasingly involve national economic interests, and a new style of political leadership which can focus on them. Notes three specific tasks (1) reduce US dependence on Gulf oil (2) ease the Third World debt crisis (3) limit the damage from narcotics traffic.
Forecasts the emergence of an international order based on 'civilian powers', defined as states dependent on economic co-operation, supra-national structures, and primarily economic (rather than military) means of defending the national interest. A discussion of the potential of the FRG and Japan as such powers.
Events in Europe since 1989 have undermined the traditional premises of French security policy. Future French governments are "likely to strive to retain as much of the Gaullist attitude as possible, even if the substance of their policies eventually contains less and less of the approach de Gaulle bequeathed them". See also David S Yost 'La France dans la nouvelle Europe' Politique Étrangère 55/4 Winter 1990 pp887-901, 9 refs.
Although the intoxication of the revolutions of 1989 has been followed by painful realizations of the pervasive legacy of the communist period (attitudes, bureaucracy), the West should remain optimistic that long-term objectives for economic revitalization can be achieved.
Analysis of the 'Shatalin plan' to introduce a market economy within 500 days.
Examines the challenges now facing the Russian people after the collapse of communism, in terms of the calamitous loss of entire generations of a free-thinking intelligentsia, first the 'bourgeois', then the Marxist -- a loss which now deprives them of the patience, understanding and articulateness needed to establish and secure democratic rule. Western help should be not merely financial, but intellectual and cultural. To be read with this author's 1947 forecast, under the pseudonym 'X', of the reasons and character of the collapse of communism. The analysis of the 'calamity' of Stalinism acknowledges a debt to Robert W Tucker 'Stalin in power: the revolution from above' (WW Norton, 1990).