New Issue Announcement - 2007-02-26

February 26, 2007

Gulf Wars

On newsstands March 6.

The Iraqi civil war has already begun and the United States' best option is to let the fighting rage on, writes Stanford University political scientist and civil war expert James Fearon. Washington's long-run objective for Iraq is a stable power-sharing arrangement between the warring sectarian groups. But such an outcome is only possible, says Fearon, once the opposing sides fight enough to realize that they have no more to gain from armed conflict. However, they are far from that point now. Based on this sobering assessment, Fearon makes the case for a shift in U.S. strategy away from absolute commitment to the current Shiite-led government and toward a balancing role between the combating factions.

Further east, as fears are growing that the United States will take military action again, Washington has more to gain than lose by shifting its policy toward Iran from containment to détente, argues Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations — and there is no better time than now. Takeyh writes that Washington's long-standing policy of containment has been an abject failure over two and a half decades. But the recent ascendance of a pragmatic wing within the Iranian leadership means a window of opportunity has opened up for détente to work.

Also in this issue: Daniel Drezner illuminates one of the Bush administration's few foreign policy successes: its attempt to reconfigure the international order; John Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen draw attention to the interrelated conflicts in the Horn of Africa that have made the region the hottest conflict zone in the world — and how U.S. policy can help heal it; Ashutosh Varshney descibes the tensions between market reform and democracy in India; and the recent resurgence of Japan is analyzed.

The complete text of Fearon's, Takeyh's, and Drezner's articles, all book review essays, and more is available on the Foreign Affairs Web site — look for the label FULL TEXT in the listing below. You can still receive this issue by mail if you subscribe to Foreign Affairs by April 14, 2007^*.

* Outside of the United States, you may still receive this issue by mail if you subscribe to Foreign Affairs by March 10, 2007.

ESSAYS
	The United States Can't Win Iraq's Civil War James D. Fearon History shows that the Sunnis and Shiites will reach a power-sharing deal only after much more fighting — if then. FULL TEXT
	Time for Détente with Iran Ray Takeyh Washington tried containment and that failed. Resuming diplomatic and economic relations is the best way to tame Iran's growing power. FULL TEXT
	The New New World Order Daniel W. Drezner The Bush administration is adapting to the shift in global power, moving toward China and India — and away from Europe. FULL TEXT
	Unprepared for Pandemic Michael T. Osterholm The good news is that an influenza pandemic has not hit yet. The bad news is the world may not be ready when it does. 500-WORD PREVIEW
	Advertisement What's Happening in Hong Kong? For analytical articles about current events in Hong Kong and its neighborhood, read the new online quarterly, the Hong Kong Journal (www.hkjournal.org). Hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, this free publication offers contributions by well-known specialists on political, economic and social trends in China's newest Special Administrative Region. The authors come from Hong Kong, the U.S., China and elsewhere, and provide diverse views about the territory's rich past, present and future. Read Anson Chan, Regina Ip and Audrey Eu on the future of democracy in Hong Kong. See www.hkjournal.org.
	Blowing the Horn John Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen From Darfur to Somalia, Washington needs to embrace a regional approach to diplomacy and state-building. 500-WORD PREVIEW
	How Able is Abe? Richard Katz and Peter Ennis Japan's new prime minister is getting an A for foreign policy. How is he doing on the economy? 500-WORD PREVIEW
	India's Democratic Challenge Ashutosh Varshney Democracy is a long-term asset but a short-term headache for India's economic reformers. 500-WORD PREVIEW
	The Moderate Muslim Brotherhood Robert S. Leiken and Steven Brooke Rejecting global jihad and embracing democracy, these Islamists may prove more friend than foe. 500-WORD PREVIEW
	College Goes Global William R. Brody The university of the future will look more like a multinational corporation than like Plato's Academy. 500-WORD PREVIEW
	The Underfunded Pentagon Martin Feldstein Washington can spend more on the military — without breaking the budget. 500-WORD PREVIEW
BOOK REVIEWS
	Japan is Back Michael J. Green The resurgence of Tokyo's power and purpose is good news for Washington and Asia. FULL TEXT
	Chinese Lessons Warren I. Cohen How Nixon's historic 1972 visit to Mao led to today's complex U.S.-Chinese relationship. FULL TEXT
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