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The Rise of China and the Future of the West
Summary --
China's rise will inevitably bring the United States' unipolar moment to an end. But that does not necessarily mean a violent power struggle or the overthrow of the Western system. The U.S.-led international order can remain dominant even while integrating a more powerful China -- but only if Washington sets about strengthening that liberal order now.
Submitted by Tatsushi F. (Apr. 29, 2009) on May 20, 2009 - 10:44am.
Ancient China, as is well know, was the most advanced and sophisticated civilization on earth. And the price for that accomplishment, also as is well know, has been her history
since the collapse of that civilization.
To understand the re-emergence of China today as a world power must be viewed with consideration of the DNA that is that ancient China.
Submitted by Danrome A. (Nov. 17, 2009) on November 18, 2009 - 12:55pm.
The tensions arising from China's phenomenal rise can be broadly divided into two. The first has to do with economic factors-China's growth will require that some accommodation must be made for her in the organs that control international trade and finance.I believe America and the West can easily do this.
The second source of tension, which is more intractable, concerns the historical attitude of Chinese leaders towards Taiwan. Clearly, China's leaders want to incorporate that small country into mainland China;and they are willing to use force to achieve this objective- the unprecedented military build-up is intended to achieve this sooner or later.This will dramatically test America's resolve down the line in the future.I wish a generation of Chinese leaders will arise who can firmly and publicly say that the 'virility' of China is not tied to the eventual incorporation of Taiwan, and that the Taiwanese are free to choose.
Sadly, it seems all China's leaders are cut from the same cloth and would not contemplate an Anwar Sadat-like rethink of peace with Israel. Until a leader comes with this new mindset, war with America over Taiwan is probable in the future.
In short, China's leaders all think that Taiwan is historically part of China, and they are all willing to use force to incorporate that tiny island.Taiwan is their casus belli.
Kenneth Lieberthal's encyclopedic survey of the People's Republic bets the Communist Party can keep the lid on the country's political discontent, but a billion increasingly affluent Chinese may be getting other ideas.
Over the past decade, China's leaders have pursued rapid economic reform while stifling political change. The result today is a rigid state that is unable to cope with an increasingly organized, complex, and robust society. China's next generation of leaders, set to take office in 2002-3, will likely respond to this dilemma by accelerating political reform -- unless a new cold war with the United States intervenes.
China's reform policies have created economic opportunities, but they have also unleashed political tensions. Some U.S. strategists advocate a containment strategy, yet such a strategy is both undesirable and infeasible. America's fortunes in Asia depend on the evolution of a China that is secure, cohesive, reform-oriented, and open to the world. Failed reform could easily lead to a nationalistic, obstructionist China. In recent years, Washington, while trying to engage the People's Republic, has driven it into a corner over human rights. America must develop a long-term strategy to integrate China into the world community and avert serious damage to this crucial bilateral relationship. And it must begin to do so now.
Washington's repeated attempts to bring peace to Somalia with state-building initiatives have failed, even backfired. It should renounce political intervention and encourage local development without trying to improve governance.
Comments
The Rise of China
Ancient China, as is well know, was the most advanced and sophisticated civilization on earth. And the price for that accomplishment, also as is well know, has been her history
since the collapse of that civilization.
To understand the re-emergence of China today as a world power must be viewed with consideration of the DNA that is that ancient China.
GROUPTHINK AT ZHONGNANHAI.
The tensions arising from China's phenomenal rise can be broadly divided into two. The first has to do with economic factors-China's growth will require that some accommodation must be made for her in the organs that control international trade and finance.I believe America and the West can easily do this.
The second source of tension, which is more intractable, concerns the historical attitude of Chinese leaders towards Taiwan. Clearly, China's leaders want to incorporate that small country into mainland China;and they are willing to use force to achieve this objective- the unprecedented military build-up is intended to achieve this sooner or later.This will dramatically test America's resolve down the line in the future.I wish a generation of Chinese leaders will arise who can firmly and publicly say that the 'virility' of China is not tied to the eventual incorporation of Taiwan, and that the Taiwanese are free to choose.
Sadly, it seems all China's leaders are cut from the same cloth and would not contemplate an Anwar Sadat-like rethink of peace with Israel. Until a leader comes with this new mindset, war with America over Taiwan is probable in the future.
In short, China's leaders all think that Taiwan is historically part of China, and they are all willing to use force to incorporate that tiny island.Taiwan is their casus belli.