Despite international pressure, Iran appears to be continuing its march toward getting a nuclear bomb. But Washington can contain and mitigate the consequences of Tehran's nuclear defiance, keeping an abhorrent outcome from becoming a catastrophic one.
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Flawed Observation
Though some would call this point semantics, I would posit that Stephen Walt's concept of "balance of threat" more clearly characterizes intra-regional relations.
The distinction between these two analytical lenses does much to better grasp the other dynamics that color relations there.
Resist the old temptations
“…While keeping Iran off balance”? Not of Professor Gause would one want to say he has learned nothing and forgotten nothing. Did not the United States initiate a terrible war in part to throw Iran off balance, and instead see itself tumble from a pinnacle wide and firm as the plains of Kansas?
The army is always the same. The sun and the moon change. It’s good Professor Gause sees this, but rather than merely falling back from the Bush administration’s purely military approach toward the Middle East and restoring diplomatic sword play, why not resist the aphrodisiac of play upon the great chess board, and push to support a determination by President Obama for a direct approach, lucid, un-gamesman like, refreshingly direct as Mr. Bush’s and executed with the same article of faith?
And what might that approach be instead of Professor Gause’s sublimated motives, convoluted maneuvers, and trust in speculation US manipulation of the cited Middle Eastern countries beneficial? Mr. Obama’s tempered, straightforward video letter outreach to The Islamic Republic of Iran is the road to take, and despite Iran’s phlegmatic response, if the US leader hazards his administration’s foreign policy upon reconciliation, Iran and the US can eventually achieve mutual friendship. That’s a power-politics win-win. It may not be an imperialist’s idea of a win, but it may do for Mr. Obama. He’ll be letting us know if it’s what he wants.
Luis de Agustin
More of the same cannot work
Returning to classical balance-of-power politics can work in relatively stable areas, but not in a volatile area as the Middle East which is probably on a slippery slope towards more instabilty and violence with global implications.
Therefore, what is needed is a massive intervention with dangerous historic processes so as to reset them into better directions, This can be done by developing and realizing in stages a Middle East Grand Design based on shared interests to avoid radicalization, as underlying the Arab Peace Initiative. The Congress of Vienna serves as a relevant historic metaphor. It is up to President Obama to take up this challenge rather than regress into outdated modes of dealing with radically new realities.
Yehezkel Dror
Professor, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
msdror@mscc.huji.ac.il