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In an attempt to one-up Khartoum, the newly independent South Sudan has twisted its oil spigot closed. But a shuttered oil sector is just the beginning of Omar al-Bashir's problems: Juba sees him as weak, a new alliance of fighters in the east is plotting to overthrow him, and Sudan's economy is in tatters.
Violence in Sudan's disputed region of Abyei threatens to unravel the fragile peace gained from January's secession vote in the south. Before full-scale war erupts, Washington must press Khartoum for restraint and reform -- and fast.
Despite the successful referendum in southern Sudan, the unresolved status of a town straddling the border between North and South could spark civil war once again.
Ahead of last weekend's secession referendum in Sudan, Andrew S. Natsios and Michael Abramowitz wrote on the prospects for compromise and reconciliation between the country's north and south.
In recent years, international attention on Sudan has focused on Darfur. But the regime in Khartoum has been concerned with its own political survival, and with elections looming in the spring, the country's ruling party is prepared to use repression and intimidation to ensure its victory.
This week, Andrew Natsios answers questions submitted by readers about what the United States and others can do to bring peace and humanitarian relief to Sudan.
The ICC's latest move against the Sudanese president will harden Khartoum's stance, push Darfuri rebels to make unreasonable demands, and raise expectations in Sudan -- complicating efforts to secure peace and justice.
While the crisis in Darfur simmers, the larger problem of Sudan's survival as a state is becoming increasingly urgent. Old tensions between the Arabs of the Nile River valley, who have held power for a century, and marginalized groups on the country's periphery are turning into a national crisis. Engagement with Khartoum may be the only way to avert another civil war in Sudan, and even that may not be enough.
As western Sudan continues to suffer, much international attention has focused on whether to call what is happening there "genocide." Yet once the term was invoked, it did not trigger outside intervention. Terminology turns out to matter far less than was expected. And once more, the world has dithered while people die.
After years as a pariah, Khartoum has now deftly managed to end its political isolation. The success of its new alliances and the completion of an oil pipeline, however, mean that northern Sudan could indefinitely continue its bloody civil war against the south. Only the United States has the power and prestige to help end the violence and push for a peace that would be in everyone's interests.
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