Cuba

Hemispheric relations seem at an all-time high, as democracy and prosperity blossom throughout Latin America. But President Bush still faces potential problems south of the border, from mission creep in Colombia to chaos in Peru, from Chávez in Venezuela to Castro in Cuba. And then there is Mexico, where the first-ever democratically elected president is eager to engage Washington -- on his own terms. Only one thing is certain: Latin America must not be ignored.

Cuba's downing of the Brothers to the Rescue planes halted the thaw in relations that had seemed slow but inexorable. That suits Fidel Castro perfectly. Anti-Americanism hitched to a very Cuban sense of doomed defiance is the only sentiment he has going for him now that faith in socialism is dead and his regime is peddling tried-and-failed solutions for the ramshackle economy. Ironically, Castro's sovereignty fetish has driven Cubans into dependence on Miami, as well as into poverty and crime. But the Maximum Leader, who has outlasted eight U.S. presidents, is a wily tactician. A post-Castro Cuba does not seem imminent.

American businessmen are daydreaming of Havana, lobbying harder for an end to the embargo against Cuba and grousing over business missed on the island. In navigating a thicket of laws, they have started a trickle of commerce, but do not expect a gush until well after the presidential election.

Like Jews, Armenians, and White Russians, Cuban-Americans see themselves as exiled members of a diaspora, not simply immigrants. From Kennedy's Bay of Pigs plan through Clinton's continuation of the trade embargo, U.S. administrations have encouraged the hope of return to a democratic homeland. Every hour of the last 36 years has meant added suffering for the Cubans across the Florida Straits. But Clinton's reversal of the policy of political asylum for all Cuban migrants signals that the Cold War is over, even with Cuba. Cuban-Americans have become just another immigrant group. For Miami, the exile is over.