Canada

While the grim effects of the 2008 financial crisis still resonate across the globe, the recession wasn't all bad: it triggered fundamental economic restructuring, and the result is a U.S. economy poised to emerge stronger than it was before. Although it's too soon to say with certainty, even Europe may come out ahead.

The White House's decision last November to delay the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline running from Canada to the United States put campaign tactics above pragmatism and diplomacy. Yet it was hardly the first time the Obama administration has fumbled relations with its northern neighbor, and Ottawa is starting to look to Asia for more reliable economic partners.

A mere 53,000 voters defeated proposed Quebec secession last October. While Francophones and some fed-up Canadians would love a separation, both assume the rest of Canada will remain whole. But federalism would be weakened, and four provinces would be geographically severed. Montrealers and native peoples within Quebec might demand independence. Although it prefers a united Canada, the United States must prepare a plan for affiliation with Canadian fragments, midway between a treaty and statehood. Balkanization may not be restricted to Eastern Europe.

A successfully concluded free trade pact will consolidate co-operation between the USA and Canada, and be of economic benefit to both. It will provide an effective example of liberalizing trade in a world riddled with protectionist tendencies. Failure on the contrary will inflame nationalist sentiments on both sides. The outcome of the trade negotiations may also influence co-operation in other fields such as acid rain, Arctic sovereignty and North American air defence.