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This year, there will finally be a real contest for power in Caracas. With opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez having just announced that he is ending his presidential campaign and throwing his support to Henrique Capriles Radonski -- the charismatic governor whom many expect to be Chávez's main competition -- the opposition is gradually consolidating power and becoming a more serious challenge to the regime.
An annotated Foreign Affairs syllabus on Venezuela.
Some observers believed that opposition gains in last September's elections would weaken the Venezuelan president. Instead, he has consolidated control.
The debate over Hugo Chávez has been dominated by opposing caricatures -- a polarization that has thwarted a sound policy response. The Venezuelan president has an autocratic streak, no viable development model, and unsettling oil-funded aspirations to hemispheric leadership. But Washington and its allies should "confront" him indirectly: by proving they have better ideas.
Last year's crisis in Caracas caught Washington by surprise, causing oil prices to skyrocket and exposing flaws in the U.S. ability to forecast and cope with threats to its oil supply. Both government and industry must do better next time.
Hugo Chavez has led a political revolution in Venezuela, purging the state of its entrenched, corrupt political class, but he has done nothing to solve the old regime's problems: crime, unemployment, and economic stagnation. Chavez's social policies have been ineffective, and his economic rhetoric has scared away investors. Venezuelans' patience may not last much longer; Chavez's political clock is ticking.
Hemispheric relations seem at an all-time high, as democracy and prosperity blossom throughout Latin America. But President Bush still faces potential problems south of the border, from mission creep in Colombia to chaos in Peru, from Chávez in Venezuela to Castro in Cuba. And then there is Mexico, where the first-ever democratically elected president is eager to engage Washington -- on his own terms. Only one thing is certain: Latin America must not be ignored.
Richard Gott's In the Shadow of the Liberator offers a sympathetic -- but unintentionally troubling -- account of Venezuela's tough new leader.
Contadora is the code word used to mean the pursuit of peace in Central America through negotiations. Its main alternatives are widely believed to be a U.S. invasion, a regional war or both. Like motherhood and apple pie, Contadora is liked and supported by everyone.
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