Venezuela

Venezuela's United Socialist Party is already facing a succession battle between two prospective successors to Hugo Chávez: Nicolás Maduro, an avowed communist and close friend of Cuba, and Diosdado Cabello, a former military official with ties to the country's business community. Whichever man wins, he will have to remember that Chávez has skillfully relied on a mix of both strategies to win the love of his people -- strident anti-americanism and largess for the poor on the one hand, and kickbacks to big business and billions of dollars in oil sales to the United States on the other.

This year, there will finally be a real contest for power in Caracas. With opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez having just announced that he is ending his presidential campaign and throwing his support to Henrique Capriles Radonski -- the charismatic governor whom many expect to be Chávez's main competition -- the opposition is gradually consolidating power and becoming a more serious challenge to the regime.

Some observers believed that opposition gains in last September's elections would weaken the Venezuelan president. Instead, he has consolidated control.

The debate over Hugo Chávez has been dominated by opposing caricatures -- a polarization that has thwarted a sound policy response. The Venezuelan president has an autocratic streak, no viable development model, and unsettling oil-funded aspirations to hemispheric leadership. But Washington and its allies should "confront" him indirectly: by proving they have better ideas.