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If confirmed, Mehsud's death could cause the Pakistani Taliban to break apart. Several actors, including the Pakistani government, the Afghan Taliban, and al Qaeda, appear ready to step in and mediate between factions. In every scenario, fighting terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan would become more difficult.
The dispute between Kabul and Washington over who should control the Bagram detention facility underscores the many difficulties the Obama administration will face as it prepares to pull U.S. troops out of the country.
The ruling Pakistan People's Party's days in office are numbered. But it will not likely fall to a coup, given the stalemate between the military, the judiciary, and the civilians. Instead, the most likely outcome is that the government will call early general elections, which will bring a new batch of civilians to the fore.
Observers have insisted that the presidential election was not about cross-strait relations but about socio-economic issues. In fact, those two are inseparable. Taiwanese realize that good relations with China are necessary for their country's continued prosperity.
The new Taliban office in Qatar could open the door for negotiation and bring the war in Afghanistan to a peaceful end. Despite the significant risks, it would still be better to move forward cautiously, rather than not engage at all.
The suddenness of Kim Jong Il’s death has sparked fears of instability on the Korean peninsula and beyond. Fearing a messy collapse, Beijing and Washington are trying to promote a smooth transition. But rooting for stability means rooting for the continuation of arguably the most despicable government on earth.
What seems to be emerging in North Korea is a leadership configuration in which Kim Jong Un has been installed as a figurehead atop a regime struggling to hold itself together after Kim Jong Il spent two decades undermining any kind of institutional order.
With the death of Kim Jong Il, the system of dynastic succession in North Korea seems an anachronistic anomaly. But there is additional cause for alarm with this transition. When Kim took over 13 years ago, he'd spent more than a decade preparing. Today his son, however, is taking the reins with barely any experience at all.
Kim Jong Un is likely to continue his father's policies, keeping the country what it is now -- a nuclear-armed dictatorship in abject poverty -- until it can no longer sustain itself.
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