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Exploratory drilling near the coasts of Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey has unearthed vast reserves of natural gas. Competition over the rights to tap those resources is compounding existing tensions over sovereignty and maritime borders. The eastern Mediterranean is quickly becoming as volatile as its eastern cousin, the South China Sea.
Skeptics about the prospects of democracy in the Middle East argue that the Arab Spring has turned into an Islamist winter. But as a new study shows, instead of fretting over Islamists, the international community would do better to help Egypt and Tunisia strengthen their political institutions and reform their economies.
The protestors taking to Egypt's streets are overwhelmingly male, urban, and destitute. They do not have the time or patience to wait for the democratic process to fix their country and its flailing economy. In desperation, they might usher in a second revolution -- this one an uprising of the poor.
Egypt is unsettled but not on the verge of another revolution. Certainly, the country's unreformed security services have been cause for ongoing protest. But they will also ensure that those riots don't get out of hand.
In recent months, the Egyptian military has struck a quiet alliance with the country's president, believing that he and the Muslim Brotherhood will keep winning elections. In return for their support, the generals got a draft constitution that protected the many of their core interests. Yet the military also preserved its appearance of neutrality -- leaving it room to change horses should the Brotherhood fall behind.
Secularists have taken to the streets to argue that Egypt's new constitution, likely to be ratified this week, is an illegitimate document produced in an undemocratic process. What they really fear, however, is that normal politics will soon return to the country -- setting up a fight that they know they can't win.
From a liberal democratic perspective, there is much to like in Egypt's new constitution and some things to worry about as well. There are also gaping holes and ambiguities that only politics can fill in -- and, given the current state of Egyptian democracy, that is where the real problems lie.
It’s easy to be pessimistic about the Arab Spring, given the post-revolutionary turmoil the Middle East is now experiencing. But critics forget that it takes time for new democracies to transcend their authoritarian pasts. As the history of political development elsewhere shows, things get better.
The Arab uprisings of 2011, once a great source of hope for democracy enthusiasts, have given way to sectarian clashes and political instability. The Middle East has not yet shed its authoritarian yoke, and the United States needs a policy that reflects that reality.
Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood think of themselves as uniquely qualified to rebuild Egypt. Moreover, they believe that they were entrusted with doing so during this year's election. Their miscalculation, though, was to think that the rest of Egypt felt the same way.
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