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Jim Krane

The Gulf monarchies have developed a growing taste for their chief export, one that could undermine both of their long-held roles: as global suppliers and as stable polities in an otherwise fractious Middle East.

Essay, Fall 1992
Bernard Lewis

The Gulf War has affected regional political consciousness and undermined traditional percpetions, e.g. of pan-Arab unity and of the effectiveness of oil as a weapon. Its chief impact will be to force the countries of the Middle East into realizing that they must start to define their own security interests

Essay, Special 1991
Strobe Talbott

The manner in which President Bush terminated US military action against Iraq, and the unsatisfactoriness of the residual situation in the Gulf region with Saddam Hussein still in place, served to erode that sense of purpose and self-confidence with which Americans were persuaded to embark on that action. "He left them in confusion over exactly what they had been fighting for in the Persian Gulf, hence over what America's role should be in the post-Cold War world".

Essay, Special 1991
Martin Indyk

Overview of events in the Middle East during 1991, and how the Gulf war outcome, along with the collapse of the USSR, affected the interests of countries in the region. Asserts that US foreign policy could have been more vigorous in restructuring the Middle East order: "it sought more to stabilize the old order than to remake the Middle East in its own preferred image".

Essay, Fall 1991
William J. Perry

The military technology which played such an important role in the US-led victory over Iraq was built and deployed during the 1980s, but "was largely conceived and developed during the 1970s". Explains and discusses the defence policy objectives and procurement priorities which launched this resurgence of US military technology -- the 'offset strategy', whose central concept was that of compensation for numerical inferiority through 'force multiplier' effects, chiefly in regard to C3I ('situational awareness'), defence suppression (EW) and precision guidance. The USA should take care not to nullify the offset strategy by wanton arms transfers.

Essay, Fall 1991
McGeorge Bundy

Though nuclear weapons were not exploded in the coalition war against Iraq, they were 'used' in the sense of deterring use of chemical weapons by Iraq; however, US warnings might perhaps have been more carefully phrased, in order to show consistency with a 'no first use' policy. The war should also have served to heighten the need to achieve a lasting peace between Israel and its Arab neighbours.

Essay, Summer 1991
James E. Akins

"The invasion of Kuwait and the Arab reaction to it marked the end of the period when Arabs maintained the pretence that they were part of one great nation". The utopian conception, that the Gulf Arabs will use their wealth to "transform the Arab world", is unrealistic, and the region "will continue to be marked by glaring disparities between the rich few and poor many, and among diverse national and ideological forces in competition for the soul of Arabism". The USA should foresee that its favourable position in the Middle East will one day come to end. "Washington might use to good advantage the comfortable period that is now opening up. If the United States recognizes the temporary nature of the respite it could start to practice self-discipline; it could develop alternative energies; it could conserve its resources, tighten its belt, and bring its financial house into order".

Essay, Summer 1991
Graham E. Fuller

"The war in the Persian Gulf posed a major and untimely crisis for soviet foreign policy... At several points in the crisis it was uncertain just how firmly Moscow's principles of 'new thinking' in foreign policy would hold".

Essay, Winter 1990
Fouad Ajami

Assesses the effects of Iraq's annexation of Kuwait on the unity of the Arab world, and the recognition among Arab elite opinion generally that US assistance will be necessary to advance Arab interests. Professor of Middle Eastern studies, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University.

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