Eastern Europe & Caucasus

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Postscript,
Joshua Yaffa

Late last week in Minsk, negotiators representing Ukraine, the separatist forces, and Russia agreed to a ceasefire. If this deal holds -- plenty of earlier ceasefires have fallen apart as soon as they were signed -- then the active phase of fighting in eastern Ukraine will have come to end on terms favorable to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Snapshot,
Eric Lorber

A Russia with a sophisticated military and a cratered economy would pose a substantial threat to its neighbors, especially since many of those neighbors possess large amounts of valuable natural resources. In other words, although sanctions may be intended to deter Russia from adventurism in its near abroad, they could end up doing just the opposite.

Snapshot,
Alexander J. Motyl

If Ukraine does manage to pacify the Donbas, it will be saddled with a devastated, unstable, and permanently insecure rust belt that will continue to do what it has done since independence in 1991: serve as a channel for Russian influence on Ukraine’s internal affairs and a home to political forces that oppose reform and integration with the West.

Snapshot,
Stuart Gottlieb and Eric Lorber

Greater interdependence reduces the likelihood of conflict between nations or groups of nations by increasing the cost of conflict for all of them. However, as the EU-Russian case shows, the logic can also work in reverse. It is incredibly difficult to punish economic partners for international aggression.

Snapshot,
Tom Keatinge

An end to Russia’s intrusions into Ukraine would bring some measure of respite to Kiev. However, that alone will not be enough to place the country on a truly new path. For that, Ukraine must overcome its self-inflicted problems, in particular rampant and pervasive corruption.

Snapshot,
Stephen Holmes and Ivan Krastev

Russia's annexation of Crimea came with few consequences for Russia, while an accidental attack on a civilian airliner by semi-anarchical rebel forces, only loosely controlled by Moscow, may redefine the country's place in the world order. Here's why.

Snapshot,
Mitchell A. Orenstein

Out to earn a dollar on the Russian natural resource trade, European nations such as the Netherlands have long kept smiling as the Kremlin has continued to humiliate them. But now the airline disaster, combined with Moscow’s attempts to cover up its role in the tragedy, will likely force Europe to get real about its eastern neighbor.

Video,
Gideon Rose and Alexander J. Motyl

Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs, sits down with Alexander Motyl, professor of political science at Rutgers, to discuss the ongoing Ukraine crisis. 

Snapshot,
Alexander J. Motyl

This week saw a major escalation of Russian military involvement in Ukraine, which, until yesterday, had gone relatively unremarked in Western media. But now, no matter who fired the missile that brought down Malaysia Airlines flight 17, things are set to change. And that is bad news for Putin.

Snapshot,
Michael J. Mazarr

Recent events in Ukraine and Iraq portend a new era for international security. Today, the world’s major security risks stem from the wrath of societies or groups that feel alienated or left behind by the emerging liberal order.

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