Russian Federation

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Postscript,
Joshua Yaffa

Late last week in Minsk, negotiators representing Ukraine, the separatist forces, and Russia agreed to a ceasefire. If this deal holds -- plenty of earlier ceasefires have fallen apart as soon as they were signed -- then the active phase of fighting in eastern Ukraine will have come to end on terms favorable to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Snapshot,
Eric Lorber

A Russia with a sophisticated military and a cratered economy would pose a substantial threat to its neighbors, especially since many of those neighbors possess large amounts of valuable natural resources. In other words, although sanctions may be intended to deter Russia from adventurism in its near abroad, they could end up doing just the opposite.

Snapshot,
Ely Ratner and Elizabeth Rosenberg

The United States will have to face the reality that further Russian isolation might be more costly than it is worth. In particular, further U.S.-led sanctions will start to harm U.S. allies and partners in Asia and, therefore, American interests.

Snapshot,
Vladislav Inozemtsev and Anton Barbashin

Neither the West nor Russia will benefit from further hostilities, but the Russian government appears unable to comprehend that fact. It thus falls to the West to make Russia an offer it can't refuse.

Snapshot,
Joshua Yaffa

Vladimir Putin's decision to double down on his Ukraine policy in the face of Western sanctions will deepen Russia's isolation and hit the country's consumers. His bet is that he can weather the costs -- and preserve the loyalty of his supporters.

Snapshot,
Stuart Gottlieb and Eric Lorber

Greater interdependence reduces the likelihood of conflict between nations or groups of nations by increasing the cost of conflict for all of them. However, as the EU-Russian case shows, the logic can also work in reverse. It is incredibly difficult to punish economic partners for international aggression.

Snapshot,
Stephen Holmes and Ivan Krastev

Russia's annexation of Crimea came with few consequences for Russia, while an accidental attack on a civilian airliner by semi-anarchical rebel forces, only loosely controlled by Moscow, may redefine the country's place in the world order. Here's why.

Snapshot,
Mitchell A. Orenstein

Out to earn a dollar on the Russian natural resource trade, European nations such as the Netherlands have long kept smiling as the Kremlin has continued to humiliate them. But now the airline disaster, combined with Moscow’s attempts to cover up its role in the tragedy, will likely force Europe to get real about its eastern neighbor.

Snapshot,
Alexander J. Motyl

This week saw a major escalation of Russian military involvement in Ukraine, which, until yesterday, had gone relatively unremarked in Western media. But now, no matter who fired the missile that brought down Malaysia Airlines flight 17, things are set to change. And that is bad news for Putin.

Snapshot,
Michael J. Mazarr

Recent events in Ukraine and Iraq portend a new era for international security. Today, the world’s major security risks stem from the wrath of societies or groups that feel alienated or left behind by the emerging liberal order.

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