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China seems to want the yuan to dethrone the dollar as the global reserve currency. But don’t expect China’s currency to take over anytime soon. The yuan will rise, but far slower than predicted, and Beijing’s puzzling efforts to help it along reveal flaws in the government’s divided and incremental approach.
Confidence in the dollar and the euro continues to falter, threatening the international monetary system. The world has faced such monetary collapse before: in the 1930s, with disastrous results, and less catastrophically in the 1970s. Understanding these two precedents is crucial to successfully navigating the crisis today.
The collapse of the euro is no accident; the seeds of the crisis were planted before the monetary union even began, argues a former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. It never made sense to yoke so many different economies and cultures together—yet they now find themselves trapped in a union that leaves no means of escape.
Ireland's economic turnaround in the 1980s is generally credited to fiscal measures similar to the ones other European countries are now implementing. But those policies were painful and won't even work this time.
Markets are reeling because Europe's leaders have only offered up half-measures to resolve the crisis. Not until Brussels, Paris, and Berlin realize the fundamental flaw in their current approach -- a lack of real political and economic integration across the eurozone -- will there be an end in sight.
As the eurozone's biggest economy, it was Germany's job to stabilize the system when the first signs of financial trouble appeared. Instead, it did precisely the opposite. Whether the euro survives depends on Frankfurt finally assuming its role as leader.
The euro crisis is not a simple story of Greek sinners and German saints. In fact, imposing austerity on the eurozone's periphery alone will accomplish little. To save the continent, its richer countries and private investors must share in the sacrifice.
As the European debt crisis grows more unwieldy by the day, the ECB may be the only entity with enough financial firepower -- the ability to bail out debt-ridden countries -- to reassure global markets. Critics argue the Bank should have stepped in as a lender of last resort long ago. Now the pressure is on Draghi to take risks his predecessor refused.
Most pundits argue the eurozone has only two options: break up or create a fiscal union to match its monetary one. In fact, there's a third, and better, path: adopt tighter market discipline, bailing out illiquid countries while letting truly insolvent ones go bust. The result would be a collection of fitter economies and a Europe strong enough to play a big role on the world stage.
The EU agreement to refinance Greece's debt may have calmed the markets, but ongoing austerity measures across Europe are leave open potentially worrying side effect that policymakers have yet to address: the chance for China to buy sensitive assets at fire-sale prices.
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