Theory
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Comment,
Jan/Feb
2012
Today’s troubles are real, but not ideological: they relate more to policies than to principles. The postwar order of mutually supporting liberal democracies with mixed economies solved the central challenge of modernity, reconciling democracy and capitalism. The task now is getting the system back into shape.
Comment,
Jan/Feb
2012
Stagnating wages and growing inequality will soon threaten the stability of contemporary liberal democracies and dethrone democratic ideology as it is now understood. What is needed is a new populist ideology that offers a realistic path to healthy middle-class societies and robust democracies.
In his new book, the acclaimed psychologist Steven Pinker argues that despite the horrors of the twentieth century, global violence is actually on the decline over the long term. The empirical trend Pinker describes is real, but his explanation for it overlooks the crucial relationship between individuals and states.
Response,
Nov/Dec
2011
Before complaining about China’s refusal to buy into the liberal world order, argues Amitai Etzioni, the West should stop moving the goalposts by developing new norms of intervention, such as “the responsibility to protect.” G. John Ikenberry responds that Beijing already has more than enough inducement to sign up.
China is hardly the first great power to make authoritarian development look attractive. As Jonathan Steinberg’s new biography of Bismarck shows, Wilhelmine Germany did it with ease. But can even successful nondemocratic political systems thrive and evolve peacefully over the long run? The answer depends on whether authoritarian elites can tolerate sharing power.
Snapshot,
September 28, 2011
In 1848, a wave popular revolutions rocked Europe's authoritarian regimes. How those upheavals played out holds lessons for the future of the Arab Spring.
Postscript,
May 24, 2011
Al Qaeda will have a tough time regrouping after this year’s blows: the Arab revolutions discredited al Qaeda’s violent jihadist message, then the raid on bin Laden’s Abottabad compound killed the messenger.
Snapshot,
May 22, 2011
This period of change in the Arab world will not be short or neatly circumscribed, but an ongoing struggle between the forces trying to define the region's future.
Snapshot,
May 11, 2011
Al Qaeda is likely to survive bin Laden's killing for one simple reason: the group had already largely passed him by.
This article appears in the Foreign Affairs eBook, "The U.S. vs. al Qaeda: A History of the War on Terror." Now available for purchase.
Comment,
May/June
2011
The upheavals in the Middle East have much in common with the recent global financial crisis: both were plausible worst-case scenarios whose probability was dramatically underestimated. When policymakers try to suppress economic or political volatility, they only increase the risk of blowups.
This article appears in the Foreign Affairs/CFR eBook, The New Arab Revolt.
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