The Arab Spring at Five

The Arab Spring at Five Mar 14, 2016 Snapshot

Introduction

How will history look back on what came to be known as the Arab Spring?

Gideon Rose

Politics & Society May/June 2005 Essay

Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East

To speak of dictatorship as being the immemorial way of doing things in the Middle East is simply untrue. It shows ignorance of the Arab past, contempt for the Arab...

Bernard Lewis

Democratization May/June 2011 Comment

Demystifying the Arab Spring

Why have the upheavals in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya followed such different paths? Because of the countries' vastly different cultures and histories, writes the...

Lisa Anderson

Democratization May/June 2011 Comment

Understanding the Revolutions of 2011

Revolutions rarely succeed, writes one of the world's leading experts on the subject -- except for revolutions against corrupt and personalist "sultanistic" regimes....

Jack A. Goldstone

Politics & Society July/August 2011 Essay

Why Middle East Studies Missed the Arab Spring

Middle East experts were as surprised as everyone else by the Arab revolts. Focused on explaining the stability of local autocracies in recent decades, they...

F. Gregory Gause III

Political Development March/April 2012 Essay

The Arab Spring at One

Terrible rulers, sullen populations, a terrorist fringe -- the Arabs' exceptionalism was becoming not just a human disaster but a moral one. Then, a frustrated...

Fouad Ajami

Economic Development January/February 2013 Essay

The Promise of the Arab Spring

It’s easy to be pessimistic about the Arab Spring, given the post-revolutionary turmoil the Middle East is now experiencing. But critics forget that it takes time for...

Sheri Berman

Political Development January/February 2013 Essay

The Mirage of the Arab Spring

The Arab uprisings of 2011, once a great source of hope for democracy enthusiasts, have given way to sectarian clashes and political instability. The Middle East has...

Seth G. Jones

Economic Development Mar 6, 2013 Letter From

Tunisia's Post-Revolution Blues

Two years after the fall of Tunisia's dictatorship, the country has drifted into the doldrums. Its economy is in shambles, its security situation is worrisome, and...

Aaron Y. Zelin

Political Development Sep 17, 2013 Snapshot

Tunisia’s Lessons for the Middle East

Tunisia has its problems, but it is safe to say that the country is faring better today than most of its fellow Arab Spring nations. As those countries struggle to...

Ibrahim Sharqieh

Rachid al-Ghannouchi speaks during a news conference in Tunis, August 15, 2013.

Democratization Oct 23, 2014 Snapshot

The Tunisia Model

On October 26, Tunisians will finally have a real and unrestricted choice at the polls. Other transitioning regimes in the Middle East and the world should take note:...

Brian Klaas and Marcel Dirsus

A supporter of the Nida Tounes secular party movement waves a Tunisian flag in Tunis, October 21, 2014.

Democratization Dec 23, 2014 Snapshot

Democracy by Necessity

After three years of battles in the streets, in the National Constituent Assembly, and at the ballot box, Tunisia has officially completed its formal transition to...

Marina Ottaway

Supporters of Nidaa Tounes wave flags in Tunis, December 21, 2014.

The Arab Spring at Five Jan 31, 2016 Snapshot

Tumult in Tunisia

Tunisia, the Arab Spring’s lone success story, finds itself seeking to entrench its hard-won democracy at a time when most Tunisians believe that democracy has failed...

Brian Klaas

Politics & Society Jul 5, 2012 Snapshot

The Muslim Brotherhood's Long Game

The Muslim Brotherhood now controls Egypt's parliament and presidency. But there is a catch: most of its power exists in name only. Rather than confront its enemies...

Eric Trager

Political Development Dec 2, 2012 Snapshot

Morsi's Mistake

Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood think of themselves as uniquely qualified to rebuild Egypt. Moreover, they believe that they were entrusted with doing so during this...

Steven A. Cook

Political Development Jul 9, 2013 Snapshot

Even Good Coups Are Bad

Recent events in Egypt are by no means unique. In fact, they fit rather perfectly into the tradition of civil society coups, which are common in new democracies....

Omar Encarnación

A supporter of deposed Egyptian President Morsi stands in front of army soldiers at Republican Guard headquarters, July 8, 2013.

Law & Institutions Aug 28, 2013 Snapshot

First They Came for the Islamists

Egypt's generals promise democracy once they deal with the Islamist threat -- and the secular camp has cheered them on. But as Tunisia's experience 25 years ago shows,...

Michael J. Koplow

Egypt Tunisia Ben Ali Muslim Brotherhood Islamists Military

Political Development Jan 31, 2014 Snapshot

Can a Myth Rule a Nation?

Anyone who claims to possess full political power in post-Mubarak Egypt is lying. That even goes for Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the military’s commander in chief and Egypt...

Joshua Stacher

Supporters of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Tahrir Square in Cairo, January 25, 2014.

Egypt Jul 21, 2015 Snapshot

Egypt's Durable Misery

Egypt is more politically stable than it’s been in years, and the various state institutions and civil groups that constitute the Egyptian government will likely...

Eric Trager

A riot police officer stands guard outside a police academy, where ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi's second trial session was due to take place, on the outskirts of Cairo, January 8, 2014.

Civil Society Jan 17, 2016 Snapshot

The Brotherhood Breaks Down

The Brotherhood’s vision for establishing an Islamist state in Egypt won’t evaporate, but the rigid internal discipline that defined its decision-making is now a thing...

Eric Trager and Marina Shalabi

A man holds a poster and a sign that shows the Rabaa hand gesture, which symbolizes support for the Muslim Brotherhood, Sudan, May 22, 2015. The poster reads:

The Arab Spring at Five Jan 25, 2016 Snapshot

Did Sisi Save Egypt?

From the perspective of Sisi and Egypt’s military, the uprising threatened to bring down not only Egypt’s president but its entire social and political order. Averting...

Nathan Brown and Yasser El-Shimy

A soldier stands guard outside a school in Qalyubiyah governorate near Cairo, Egypt, November 22, 2015.

NATO March/April 2012 Comment

NATO's Victory in Libya

NATO’s operation in Libya has rightly been praised for saving lives and ending a tyrannical regime, write the U.S. permanent representative to NATO and its supreme...

Ivo H. Daalder and James G. Stavridis

Post-Conflict Reconstruction Jul 12, 2012 Snapshot

Libya's Militia Menace

Libya's elections passed peacefully, but observers should have no illusions about the momentous challenges ahead, especially the task of rebuilding and formalizing the...

Frederic Wehrey

Political Economy November/December 2012 Comment

After Qaddafi

In light of the killing of the U.S. ambassador, it’s tempting to be pessimistic about Libya. But just a year after the fall of a long-standing tyrant, the country is...

Dirk Vandewalle

An anti-Gaddafi rebel prays and chants along a road during clashes with pro-Qaddafi forces near Ras Lanuf March 8, 2011.

Strategy & Conflict Jul 28, 2014 Snapshot

Libya on the Brink

The violence tearing apart Libya might appear to be an ideological struggle. In fact, it is an economic competition between two rival criminal networks.

Jason Pack

Wreckage at Tripoli International Airport, July 2014.

Best of 2015 March/April 2015 Essay

Obama's Libya Debacle

The U.S. intervention in Libya was a complete failure. Libya has not only failed to evolve into a democracy; it has devolved into a failed state. Violent deaths there...

Alan J. Kuperman

Politics & Society May/June 2015 Response

Who Lost Libya?

For Derek Chollet and Ben Fishman, former officials in the Obama administration, the 2011 U.S.-led military intervention in Libya was the right thing to do even with...

Derek Chollet and Ben Fishman; Alan J. Kuperman

Marking the third anniversary of the start of the battle for Benghazi, March 2014.

Obama Administration Feb 10, 2016 Snapshot

Setting the Record Straight on Benghazi

Benghazi may have been a flash point in the story of Libya’s unraveling, but it is one event among many that has forever altered the country’s trajectory.

Ethan Chorin

A protester reacts as the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi is seen in flames during a protest by an armed group said to have been protesting a film being produced in the United States September 11, 2012.

Strategy & Conflict Feb 5, 2012 Snapshot

Russia's Line in the Sand on Syria

Russia vetoed a resolution at the UN Security Council to end the violence in Syria because it feels burned by last year's international intervention in Libya, and it...

Dmitri Trenin

Middle East Mar 20, 2012 Snapshot

Assad Family Values

In February 1982, Hafez al-Assad put down a rebellion in the city of Hama by his Islamist opponents. Three decades later his son faced down a similar rebellion in Homs...

Patrick Seale

Humanitarian Intervention Mar 20, 2012 Snapshot

Why Washington Didn't Intervene In Syria Last Time

In 1982, the United States said very little about Hafez al-Assad's shelling of Hama and no one suggested that the United States intervene. In the wake of the Arab...

Richard W. Murphy

Security Apr 16, 2012 Snapshot

Alawites for Assad

The Alawites stand by Assad out of a historic fear of Sunni persecution. Although some Alawites are breaking ranks, most face a dilemma: by continuing to support the...

Leon Goldsmith

Security Aug 13, 2012 Letter From

Ramadan in Aleppo

After nearly 18 months and some 20,000 dead, Western and Arab governments are still debating the geopolitical pros and cons of intervening in Syria. But inside the...

Michael Weiss

Strategy & Conflict Mar 25, 2013 Snapshot

The Real Reason Putin Supports Assad

Vladimir Putin's unwavering support for the Assad regime in Syria is best explained by his dread of fracturing states and Sunni Islamism -- fears he confronted most...

Fiona Hill

Terrorism & Counterterrorism March/April 2015 Interview

Syria's President Speaks

A Conversation With Bashar al-Assad

The civil war in Syria will soon enter its fifth year, with no end in sight. On January 20, Foreign Affairs managing editor Jonathan Tepperman met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus to discuss the conflict in this exclusive interview.

Syria Aug 11, 2015 Snapshot

The New Great Game

As most of the world has stood by and watched Syria’s disintegration, regional powers have been busy claiming spheres of influence in the country in the name of...

Andrew J. Tabler

A picture of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is displayed on a damaged structure at the entrance of al-Dukhaneya neighbourhood near Damascus, October 7, 2014.

Syria Nov 4, 2015 Snapshot

The Not-So-Great Game in Syria

Before the Russian intervention, Syria seemed to be turning into Bosnia or Somalia. Now, it could well become another Afghanistan.

Andrew J. Tabler

Jordan Sep 28, 2015 Snapshot

Syria's Good Neighbors

Since the start of the civil war in 2011, nearly four million Syrians have fled their country. To be sure, the number of refugees arriving in Europe is staggering, but...

David Schenker

Refugees & Migration Oct 5, 2015 Snapshot

No (Gulf) Country for Syrian Refugees

The Gulf political-economic model is fundamentally incompatable with the category of refugee. That the Gulf states, despite their vast wealth and resources, have not...

Michael Ewers and Justin Gengler

A Syrian refugee girl stands behind a door at a makeshift settlement in the village of Ketermaya, south of Beirut January 8, 2015.

Best of 2015 March/April 2015 Essay

ISIS Is Not a Terrorist Group

ISIS may use terrorism as a tactic, but it is not a terrorist organization. Rather, it is a pseudo-state led by a conventional army. So the counterterrorism strategies...

Audrey Kurth Cronin

Terrorism & Counterterrorism Jan 10, 2016 Snapshot

ISIS' Social Contract

ISIS is far more dependent on the taxes and cooperation of ordinary civilians than was previously believed.

Mara Revkin

A man walks past a damaged mosque ain Raqqa, eastern Syria, which is controlled by ISIS, November 25, 2014.

ISIS Jan 4, 2016 Snapshot

How to Defeat ISIS

The United States can destroy ISIS through its current policy of air support, train-and-equip programs to build up local allies, and special forces strikes—but only if...

James F. Jeffrey

A Free Syrian Army fighter near Deraa, Syria January 2, 2016.

U.S. Foreign Policy January/February 2016 Essay

Obama's Way

Barack Obama has been besieged by foreign policy crises, constrained by diminished American power, and pressured by opponents at home and allies abroad to take action...

Fred Kaplan

The Decider: Obama and other officials, including John Kerry, Samantha Power, and Benjamin Rhodes, in New York, September 2014.

Best of 2015 November/December 2015 Comment

The End of Pax Americana

Washington is indeed pulling back from the Middle East—not because it doesn’t care or can’t afford to do more, but because policymakers have recognized, correctly,...

Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson

U.S. soldiers leaving Iraq, December 2011. The potential for American military power to effect major change in the Middle East is diminishing.

Best of 2016 March/April 2016 Essay

Fight or Flight

The next U.S. president will face a difficult choice in the Middle East: do much more to stabilize the region’s ongoing conflicts, or disengage altogether. Both...

Kenneth M. Pollack

Houthi fighters patrol the main street of Sadah, Yemen, June 2015. The Saudis have taken the stunning step of directly intervening in Yemen’s civil war.

U.S. Foreign Policy November/December 2015 Comment

Getting  Over Egypt

The time has come for a fundamental change in U.S.-Egyptian relations. “Business as usual” will do nothing to alter Egypt’s negative trajectory and will further bind...

Michael Wahid Hanna

A protester shows his collection of tear gas canisters thrown by police forces during clashes between police and protesters near the Interior Ministry in Cairo, February 3, 2012.

The Arab Spring at Five Feb 7, 2016 Snapshot

The Next Front Against ISIS

Any strategy to tackle ISIS should first aim at bridging Libyan political divides and channeling assistance in a way that promotes cooperation between rival forces.

Frederic Wehrey and Wolfram Lacher

Smoke from an oil fire in Es Sider, in Ras Lanuf, Libya, January 6, 2016. Firefighters have extinguished two fires at oil storage tanks at Libya's Ras Lanuf terminal, but blazes continue at five tanks in the nearby port of Es Sider after attacks this week

The Arab Spring at Five Feb 9, 2016 Snapshot

Algeria After the Arab Spring

Five years after the Arab Spring, Algeria, Africa’s biggest country, has maintained some semblance of stability. But with oil prices falling and Bouteflika in poor...

Yahia H. Zoubir

Algerians chant and dance while holding rifles at the opening of an event at Algiers, June 4, 2006.

The Arab Spring at Five Jan 25, 2016 Snapshot

Ankara's Failure

Among the most optimistic about the Arab Spring were the leaders of Turkey, who saw the upheaval as an opportunity to realize their neo-Ottoman dream of positioning...

Jonathan Schanzer and Merve Tahiroglu

A demonstrator waves Turkey's national flag as he sits on a monument during a protest against Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AKP in central Ankara, June 2, 2013.

Syria Jan 19, 2016 Snapshot

Assad Has It His Way

President Bashar al-Assad is winning in Syria. Russia has shifted the balance of power there dramatically. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the UN might insist...

Joshua Landis and Steven Simon

Syrian civilians who volunteered to join local Self Protection Units to protect their neighborhoods alongside the Syrian army attend training in Damascus countryside, Syria December 5, 2015. The text on the badges read in Arabic,

Terrorism & Counterterrorism Feb 8, 2016 Snapshot

The Right Way to Think About the Syria Talks

Much of the cynicism about the Geneva talks stems from false expectations about what they can achieve. From the U.S. perspective, the point of the process should not...

Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro

Foreign Affairs Anthology Series

The Arab Spring at Five

A comprehensive look at how 2011 shaped the Middle East.

Table of Contents

Spring

Fall: Tunisia

Fall: Egypt

Fall: Libya

Fall: Syria

Winter

Must-Read Anthologies