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The program known as the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) includes research on a variety of technologies—many aimed at distinct phases of the ballistic missile flight path. For each phase—boost, post-boost, mid-course and terminal —a defense would require successful surveillance, target acquisition, tracking, guidance of the weapons, and kill mechanisms. Are the objectives of SDI technically feasible?
The answer will depend primarily on what specific objectives strategic defenses ultimately seek to achieve—protection of population, of missile silos, of other military targets. Within that context, the answer will further depend on the capabilities of the technologies and on the potential countermeasures and counter-countermeasures of each side.
This article will assess the prospects for the various defensive technologies for both the near term (10 to 15 years) and the longer term. It will include recommendations on how to proceed with a realistic research and development program. It will also make tentative judgments on the technical feasibility of various SDI objectives, though definitive answers are not yet possible. The political desirability of SDI is a separate question, not addressed here.
Finally, in considering the prospects for the various SDI technologies, it is important to remember how long it takes to move from technological development through full-scale engineering to deployment. That time is governed by the budgetary and legislative process, as well as by the state of technology.
—After the technology is proven out, full-scale engineering development of a moderately complex system will typically take five to eight years (a new ICBM is a good example).
—The course of deployment (unless there is concurrency of development with deployment, which has almost always proven counterproductive) takes five to seven years after completion of engineering development.
—Thus, if proven technology exists now, it will take 10 to 15 years before a new system employing the technology could be substantially deployed.
—If the technology needs to be further developed, even though the phenomena exist and are well understood, the time for that technology development will have to be added to such a period.
What kinds of technologies could be embodied in defenses against ballistic missiles that could begin deployment before or about the year 2000?
Terminal hard point defenses (e.g., defending ICBMs), using hardened ground-based radars and interceptor rockets, would require about ten years between a decision to deploy and having a significant force; the time to completion of deployment would approach 15 years from decision. The necessary technology exists now, and some subsystems have already been partially developed. What would be required would be the design of a new system involving—in sequence—some additional prototype development, full-scale engineering development, production and deployment. Such a system would include an interceptor like the Spartan missile aimed at reentry vehicles (RVs) outside the atmosphere, and another, rather like the Sprint missile, for intercepting RVs that have already entered the atmosphere.
Present designs of both missiles would require the use of nuclear warheads. Alternatively, non-nuclear versions could be developed using terminal homing devices in the interceptor. There is some question about how heavy a conventional warhead (and therefore the interceptor missile) would need to be in order to provide high probability of destroying the incoming RV and missile warhead; it depends on how close to the reentry vehicle the terminal guidance could bring the interceptor. If a non-nuclear interceptor is chosen, this would lengthen by at least a few years the time to a substantial deployed capability.
An additional optical sensor, the Airborne Optical Adjunct (AOA), which would track reentry vehicles by detecting their infrared emissions or viewing them with visible light, could also be included at about the same time as a non-nuclear warhead. Such a capability is feasible technologically and likely to be helpful in discrimination during or shortly before the offensive missile’s reentry, but the technology would need some additional development.
Over the next 10 to 15 years it also appears technologically feasible to develop the components of a system using space-based kinetic-energy weapons. These chemically propelled rockets would intercept the offensive missile during its boost phase and destroy the target by impact or by detonation of an exploding warhead. The chemical rockets would be similar in nature to air-to-air missiles, but steered with reaction jets rather than aerodynamic surfaces. The targets could be designated to the interceptors by laser or radar tracks, provided by a set of tracking and fire-control satellites orbiting at a higher altitude than the satellites from which the interceptors would be fired. Short-range laser designation of ground or airborne targets exists, but the accuracies required for ICBM tracking would require significant additional technological development, as would imaging and processing the infrared data, and looking close to the horizon.
The interceptors would home onto the target, guided by their own passive observation of the infrared emissions from the target missile or by receiving reflections from the target of radar signals emitted from satellites (semiactive radar homing). Such a system, however, must find a way to direct the killer rocket to the actual ICBM booster rather than to its plume (exhaust), which emits the infrared signal. While presumably this can be done, it will add complexity and offer an opportunity for offense countermeasures. Though the technology for components of kinetic-energy kill and boost-phase intercept systems exists, solution of problems of this sort would require a considerable developmental process.
Several years of additional technical development could significantly decrease the weight of the intercept rocket for a given kill probability. That approach is indicated because the weight determines a significant part of the total system cost. The cost of putting payloads in orbit with either the present shuttle or expendable boosters is thousands of dollars per pound. To reduce those costs to an acceptable level, a new "super" shuttle would probably have to be developed. This would involve a ten-year development process and a delay in deployment of a space-based kinetic-energy system.
Missile boosters in the upper atmosphere and in space can be detected, tracked and attacked through the infrared emissions of the missiles’ exhaust plumes while their propulsion stages are burning; however, the actual effectiveness of such an approach will depend not only on the technical features of the defense, but on the actions of the offense in employing decoys, adopting countermeasures and suppressing the defensive system itself. For example, modest deliberate fluctuations in booster propulsion ("jinking") could require the kinetic-energy interceptor to make significant changes in its cross-trajectory velocity, and this would involve a large weight penalty for the defense. Fast-burning boosters would effectively negate such a defense system.
Nevertheless, the technology for a space-based boost-phase intercept system of some capability, using kinetic-energy weapons, could be ready for a decision as early as 1990-92 to initiate full-scale engineering development, with a significant deployment able to begin some time between 1995 and 2000. Soon after the year 2000 there could thus be deployed a space-based kinetic-energy kill system along with a high-altitude and low-altitude terminal defense. These would constitute three layers of a possible multilayered defense, the purpose of which would be to compound modest kill probabilities in each defensive layer so as to produce a high overall kill probability.
For the period five to ten years beyond 1995-2000, more elaborate space- and ground-based technologies may be feasible, with a corresponding period of deployment beginning some time between 2000 and 2010. Increased uncertainty, however, naturally attaches the further out we look.
Among the less uncertain of these later technologies are space-based directed-energy weapons such as neutral particle beams and chemical lasers.
—A neutral particle beam (NPB) would be made up of atomic particles, accelerated to a high speed in charged form by electric fields in an accelerator, then steered and pointed by a magnet, and then neutralized so that it will not be deflected by the earth’s magnetic field.
—A chemical laser uses the energy created by chemical reactions to create a highly focused, intense, highly ordered ("coherent") beam of infrared light, directed by a mirror.
As a measure of their status, both of these technologies could well be used toward the early end of the period 2000-10 for antisatellite purposes, which are less demanding than the anti-ballistic missile task. Demonstrations of the capability to kill an individual satellite by such means—most likely on cooperative targets—could be made still earlier, but these would not represent an operational military system.
Neutral particle beams are, in their present state of development, much brighter than any existing laser in terms of energy into a given solid (cone) angle. Today they produce particles of energy corresponding to acceleration by a few million volts of electric field (and could in the future be improved to 100 million "electron-volt" energies). Protecting ballistic missiles from such high-energy NPBs would require much heavier shielding than would protection from lasers. During the next 10 or 15 years, however, it is unlikely that NPB technology will be able to put more than ten percent of the primary energy into the particle beam itself. Such low efficiency means that a space-based NPB would probably require a nuclear power source, development of which would delay the possible deployment of a system.
In addition to the usual target acquisition and tracking problems, a defense based on neutral particle beams has several other critical tasks. The magnet necessary to point the beam before its neutralization is likely to be heavy—and expensive—to put into space. The tasks of developing an ion source capable of operation over some minutes and of achieving the necessary pointing accuracy will be difficult. Even more difficult is tracking the beam, since it gives off almost no signal in space. Finally, the system will need to find ways to detect the effect on the target, through nuclear emanations from it, because at the full range of a successful NPB attack, the target would not be physically destroyed. Even where NPBs cannot be used to kill targets, however, they might ultimately prove useful in discriminating among them, because the nuclear emanations from an object hit by an NPB would depend on the object’s weight.
For chemical lasers several technological problems still need to be solved. One is getting high enough power while maintaining a low enough beam divergence. Another is the very large weight of chemical reactants required for providing the energy. A third is the feasibility of the large optical systems required. There are, however, some promising technologies under development for chemical and other lasers. Among them are: various phase-compensation techniques to improve the quality and stability of the beam; phase-locking separate lasers together to increase the overall brightness; using adaptive optics (rapid adjustment of segments of a mirror), both to compensate for atmospheric dispersion for ground-based lasers and to ease the problems of creating large aperture mirrors for space-based ones; and phased arrays of lasers to increase intensity and to steer them more rapidly through a small angle, so as to move quickly from target to target. But some of these technologies have yet to reach full demonstration of the physical principles involved, and all are still far from being developed.
Less technologically developed, and therefore more suitable for consideration of full-scale deployment beginning 20-25 years from now, is the use of ground-based excimer and free-electron lasers (FEL) to be used with mirrors in space as components of a system for boost-phase intercept. Both are now many orders of magnitude away from achieving the intensity necessary for the required lethality, the free-electron laser further away than the excimer laser, at present. But the free-electron laser’s device weight is lighter and its efficiency greater (and thus, its fuel weight lighter) than that of the excimer laser. The FEL might perhaps therefore be deployable in space. But the weights of these lasers and of their energy supplies more probably would require either to be ground based. The laser wavelength for both would allow the beams to penetrate the atmosphere, if the atmospheric distortions problem is solved. Thus both seem more suitable for ground deployment along with mirrors in space. Other problems for the ground-based lasers are the large optics required, both on the ground and for the synchronous-altitude steering mirrors, and obtaining the same high power in each of a long series of repetitive pulses.
These two systems might also be suitable for "active" discrimination—also called "interactive" or "perturbing"—in the mid-course phase of a strategic defense. That is, they could impart energy or momentum to very large numbers of objects in mid-course being tracked by some of the more established technologies already discussed. The resulting changes in the objects being tracked, or in their trajectory, could offer some limited opportunities for discrimination of reentry vehicles from decoys and debris.
Significant technological disagreement exists about the potential of ground-based lasers (free-electron or excimer) versus space-based chemical lasers. Some believe that the smaller amount and lesser complexity of hardware required to be put in space will bring the time for availability of these ground-based lasers as close or closer than the time actually required for those entirely space-based.
Chemical lasers are more proven technologically than excimer or free-electron lasers, but many experts have dismissed their potential use because of the difficulties in designing an effective system. Chemical lasers (space-based because their wavelengths will not penetrate the atmosphere) could be of some use against ballistic missiles now deployed. They could well be severely inadequate, however, against the offensive systems (with, for example, fast-burn missiles and other countermeasures) that could be in place during the first decade of the next century, when a significant defensive laser deployment could be made. Surely such countermeasures would be put in place if defense lasers were deployed. And in light of the large weight of chemical fuel that would have to be deployed in space, the chemical laser system at present seems to fall into the category of technically feasible but ineffective as a system. New optical developments such as phased arrays and phase conjugation are now being investigated, however. These might be able to improve the brightness and stability of chemical lasers—and increase their lethal range—to the point where they would have some systems effectiveness even against a responsive threat.
X-ray lasers powered by nuclear explosions are still further off than the other types of lasers, although they seem to offer some interesting distant possibilities. X-ray lasers would have wider beam angles and higher power per unit solid angle than optical ones. This would make them suitable for destroying clouds of objects or for actively discriminating heavy objects among them, and thus effective against such countermeasures as balloons and decoys. Proof of the most basic principle has been established, in that bomb-driven X-ray lasing has been demonstrated to be possible. But there is doubt as to what intensity has been achieved; it is in any event far less than necessary for use in active discrimination, let alone target kill. Demonstration of the physics of a possible weapon is at least five (more likely ten) years off. Weaponization would involve another five or more years, and only thereafter could its incorporation into a full-scale engineering development of a defensive system begin.
Rail guns, which accelerate objects to very high speed electromagnetically, may also have promise. But they are almost as far off as X-ray lasers. Multi-kilogram payloads would need to be accelerated to speeds above 15 kilometers per second, and a system (and power source) would need to be designed that could be used for multiple shots. New guidance and propulsion systems would also have to be engineered to survive such accelerations and to do the necessary terminal homing.
While many uncertainties exist as to future laser technologies for strategic defense, all laser systems would be vulnerable to other lasers. In general, the rules of the competition are that ground-based lasers will defeat space-based ones, larger ones will defeat smaller ones, and bomb-driven X-ray lasers looking up though the fringes of the atmosphere will defeat the same sort of X-ray lasers looking down into the fringes of the atmosphere. Vulnerabilities will also differ as between ground-based and space-based lasers. The former would have the weapons—or at least their energy source—on the ground, and presumably would include mirrors stored or unfolded in or popped up into space for the purpose of steering the laser beams.
As to time scale, when one is talking about time scales for deployment 25 or more years from now, corresponding to technologies whose full demonstration is more than ten years away, one really cannot know what the time scale will be to reach substantial deployment. The accompanying chart summarizes the time scales for these various systems. For the space-based systems, the pop-up systems and those with mirrors in space, lengthy technology development periods will be required. Depending on how that development is carried out, it may be possible to defer collision with the provisions of the ABM treaty until early in the process of full-scale engineering development. The calendar times differ for each technology, as shown in Figure 1.
A successful strategic defense would require not only kill mechanics but also a battle management system involving sophisticated command, control and communications (C3). Estimates for the total number of lines of code of software required range from 10 million to 100 million. A measure of the effort involved can be derived by using the standard figure of $50 a line. Thus, the software costs could range from $500 million to $5 billion. The raw cost of such a system is therefore less important than the feasibility and methods of finding and correcting errors in it.
One problem would be with errors in the codes themselves. While this would not be trivial, it could be dealt with in part through automated software production and through artificial intelligence. The latter, though still mostly in the conceptual stage, nevertheless has real capabilities in terms of expert systems, and can be expected to produce real advances within the next ten years. The most fundamental problems for battle management and C3 are: the establishment of appropriate rules of engagement; the probability of conceptual as well as mechanical error in the creation of the software, and the possibility of redundancy to compensate for it; the need to change portions of the software as new elements are introduced into the system without having the changes compromise the working of the rest of the software; and, most of all, the ability to check out the system, so as to make sure there are no conceptual errors in the software in such matters as handing over tracks of the offensive missiles, transferring automated decisions from one node of the system to another, avoiding loops in the logical sequence, and so forth.
How could such capabilities be tested? Can on-orbit testing be used? Such problems are just beginning to be addressed, and it will take a long time before conclusions can be drawn even as to what the state of this particular technology is compared with what is needed.
In terms of future defensive technologies, what potential defense systems are technically feasible?
It is technologically feasible to create a terminal defense overlay of hard ICBM silos, deployed so that the missiles are moved among multiple silos and so that their position at any one time is unknown to the attacker. Such a defense overlay can, by preferential defense—that is, defending only the occupied silos—provide a cost-exchange ratio favorable to the defense because the attacker must attack all silos. The same is probably true of defense of moderately hardened mobile missile systems by a terminal defense of corresponding mobility and hardness. In the case of hard-silo defense, a single layer of defense by endoatmospheric ground-based interceptors would suffice. For mobile hardened missiles, a two-tier ground-based system would probably be needed.
Modified ground-based defenses using similar technologies could protect some other military targets, for example command and control centers. The exchange ratio at the margin will vary widely, however, among classes of such targets according to their nature (hardness, area and mobility), their number and their cost. Such defenses could also be deployed for a thin protection of some urban-industrial areas, though they must be recognized as protecting such targets, if at all, only against attacks that are both limited in size and not responsive (i.e., not modified to take account of the defenses). Terminal defenses for these categories would use two-tier ground-based interceptors, and until the early 21st century would need to carry nuclear warheads in at least the exoatmospheric long-range tier. The defenses would be accompanied by space-based early warning and tracking sensors, and by airborne optical sensors to aid in the discrimination task during the terminal phase.
Advanced versions of infrared sensors deployed near or above geosynchronous orbit (an altitude of 20,000 miles) will be needed for attack warning and assessment in any defensive system, even if no boost-phase intercept is attempted. Infrared or other sensors in lower orbits (at altitudes of hundreds of miles) would also be useful to all layers of a ballistic missile defense system for tracking and discrimination. But the sensors must be able to survive. This suggests that they be provided with some self-defense, which in turn could be the first step toward boost-phase intercept.
As to weapons, kinetic-energy rockets based in space are technologically feasible. But an ICBM using a fast-burn booster clearly defeats them, and space-based defenses are vulnerable to defense suppression. Estimates of the exchange ratio for a boost-phase intercept defense layer based on kinetic-energy kill range from as low as two to one adverse to the defense at the margin (assuming unresponsive offensive threats and including sunk costs for the offense) to more realistic estimates, assuming responsive offenses, of five or ten to one. Defense suppression would probably further shift the ratio in favor of the offense.
Space-based chemical lasers seem feasible in technological terms but more questionable in practical systems terms. Though likely to be faster in response than kinetic-energy weapons, they still will not be a match for fast-burn boosters of offensive missiles. They will, moreover, be vulnerable to defense suppression systems based on other space-based lasers, and also vulnerable to ground-based lasers and direct-ascent antisatellite weapons. Ground-based lasers, whether free-electron or excimer lasers, are interesting future technologies and may be more effective than chemical lasers, but it is too soon to know.
It should be noted that even though fast-burn missiles could thwart a boost-phase intercept, this still leaves the possibility of a post-boost tier or layer in an SDI system. The deployment by the offense of warheads and decoys cannot occur until later in the trajectory than the boost phase, at a higher altitude in order to avoid atmospheric drag. But the technology for post-boost intercept capabilities is likely to be difficult to achieve, because it will require electronic examination of images (pictures), using ordinary or infrared light, to distinguish among various components: the burned-out upper stage of the missile, the post-boost vehicle, and the various objects released from it. These requirements, the countermeasures, and the potential technological capabilities for a post-boost layer of defense are just beginning to be considered.
Which technologies would be useful in the next tier, in mid-course intercept, is still less understood. Presumably the defense would want to use the same kill methods (kinetic-energy and directed-energy weapons) for intercepts as in the other tiers. This has the advantage of allowing some of the absentee satellites to come into play because of the longer time period involved in mid-course flight of a missile. Discrimination among possibly colossal numbers of objects would, however, be a daunting problem. There are ideas about how to address it, but no confidence in any of them; that is why there is a drive toward consideration of "active" discrimination, which would impart energy to the objects in the threat cloud in order to be able to distinguish among them by observing the effect on their behavior. Thus, mid-course intercept is unlikely to play any role in a deployed system until well after the turn of the century.
Through all of these considerations is entwined a serious problem for space-based ABMs: however effective space-based systems may be against ballistic missiles, they would appear to be more effective in suppressing defenses. And direct-ascent antisatellite systems or ground-based lasers may be still more effective than space-based systems in this latter role.
In sum, given the state of present and foreseeable technology, a boost-phase or post-boost phase intercept tier is not a realistic prospect in the face of likely offensive countermeasures and the vulnerability of those tiers to defense suppression. It will also exhibit unfavorable relative marginal costs as a contributor to defense of population at any reasonably high level of protection. These judgments apply to any system beginning deployment at least for the next 20 years, and probably considerably beyond then.
There are interesting new technologies, however, that leave open the possibility that our estimates of the offense-defense balance might change after that time, especially if some of these technologies prove to have some mid-course discrimination and intercept capability, as well as some boost-phase effectiveness. Such a shift is very unlikely, but strategic thinking should include the possibility that it might take place in terms of deployed systems some decades into the next century.
What would a defense system look like if the priorities of the Reagan Administration’s SDI program (boost-phase intercept and population defense) were to be combined with the technologies that will be available and a reasonable development program leading to deployment around the year 2000?
It would be likely to have space-based components. It would perhaps include, for example: a dozen satellites at one-half to two times geosynchronous altitude to carry out boost surveillance and tracking; some tens of satellites at perhaps one thousand kilometers altitude to carry out surveillance, tracking and fire control for the attack of boosters, post-boost vehicles, and objects in the mid-course part of the trajectory, using infrared detection (short wavelength for boost, long wavelength for mid-course) and laser designation, and possibly some semiactive radar or laser radar tracking; some thousands of satellites, at altitudes of a few hundred kilometers, whose main purpose would be to carry kinetic-kill vehicles, of which there would be a total in the tens of thousands for use as actual defensive weapons.
In parallel, terminal defenses would also be deployed. These would include terminal radars and an airborne set of optical and infrared detectors. There would be some thousands each of exoatmospheric and endoatmospheric interceptors, deployed around missile (ICBM) silos, other military targets and major urban-industrial areas. Some of the endoatmospheric interceptors might even reach out into the later parts of mid-course flight. To moderate the costs of putting into orbit the space-borne component of the system, a new and advanced shuttle would be developed and put in use beginning about 1997.
A supplementary deployment or second phase could be expected to commence eight to ten years later, thus beginning somewhere between 2005 and 2010, and taking another five to seven years to complete deployment. During that phase there would be added satellites carrying chemical lasers for killing offensive targets, and lasers or neutral particle beams for discriminating in mid-course as well. Alternatively, ground-based lasers with mirrors in orbit would be deployed, perhaps as early or perhaps three to five years later still. This second phase carries us into the realm of hypothetical technologies and cloudy crystal balls; X-ray lasers and electromagnetic rail guns lie still deeper in those realms.
Whatever the system architectures, there must be consideration of the possibility—and the effect—of catastrophic failure of one layer of a multitiered defense on the subsequent layers. In both the quantity of hardware and the nature of the software (that is, the built-in operational procedures), the systems must therefore be designed to provide a way to avoid catastrophic failure of a later layer (and thus overall failure) because of a poorer-than-expected performance of earlier layers. The simple multiplication of attrition factors in a series of layers, the number of which is sometimes rather arbitrarily assumed, carries an inherent assumption of its own. The assumption is that the operation of each layer’s sensors, tracking, kill mechanisms and effectiveness is completely independent of the nature, physical components and effectiveness of all the previous tiers. The architecture of the entire system has to be such as to assure that this would in fact be the case to the maximum possible extent; also, to the extent it is not, to assure that the system degrades "gracefully." This will not be an easy or inexpensive task.
What would constitute an appropriate research and development program?
Though existing technology and system concepts for terminal defense can provide an effective defense of hard ICBM silos deployed in a multiple protective shelter mode, more advanced technologies—optical trackers, more accurate interceptors and lower interceptor yields—would increase the system’s cost-effectiveness. For improving the contribution of terminal defense to protection of urban-industrial areas and, possibly, of military targets other than missile silos, the technology associated with non-nuclear kill and with terminal discrimination should be pursued. These would include greater tracking accuracy, homing warheads and the airborne orbiting adjunct. Deployment of a prototype developmental version of a terminal defense complex at a test range (Kwajalein) would be extremely valuable, and consistent with the ABM treaty.
Early warning and attack assessment systems should be further developed, including those based on detection of the infrared signal from missiles in a boost phase. To this end, improvements in the present Satellite Early Warning System should be carried out. Infrared, optical and radar tracking of objects in space from distances of up to about a thousand miles will also be useful for any defensive system. The corresponding R&D should therefore be vigorously pursued.
Because kinetic-energy weapons and conventional chemical lasers will be defeated by, or suffer a severe cost-exchange disadvantage from, offensive counter measures and defense suppression, the R&D program should concentrate on the more advanced kill mechanisms and active discrimination methods that are further off in time. Such an approach, however, is legitimately subject to the criticism that "the best is the enemy of the good." Moreover, the effectiveness of future technologies is easily overestimated simply because less is known about them.
If one judges that the good is not good enough, then it is appropriate to work on something better (and therefore usually further away in time). This conclusion depends, however, on a judgment that successful development of such an advanced technology has a good chance to improve the defense’s position in the balance between defensive measures and countermeasures. This last criterion may turn out not to be met even by the more advanced technologies for active discrimination and kill. For example, it continues to appear that everything that works well as a defense also works somewhat better as a defense suppressor. But the balance between offense and defense seems even less likely to shift in favor of the defense as a result of the nearer-term technologies than as a result of the more advanced ones. Thus, it is appropriate to increase the R&D emphasis on such programs as:
—optical technology, including, inter alia, the following elements: adaptive optics, i.e., adjusting the wave-front shape to compensate for distortions in the laser source and in the atmosphere; locking the phase of separate lasers together so their amplitudes add, greatly increasing the brightness; using one laser to drive another; phased-array lasers (for improving intensity, steering capability and atmospheric compensation);
—combining lasers and particle beams as a way of focusing the beam better;
—excimer and (especially) free-electron lasers, and the kill mechanisms based on those technologies; application of advanced optical technologies to chemical lasers;
—ground basing of lasers, and pop-up mirrors (which should be less vulnerable) or mirrors that unfold and that can be more easily deployed to make them less vulnerable as targets;
—verification technology for computer programs, fault tolerance, expert systems and automatic programming—in order to improve confidence in software;
—active and perturbing discrimination and other mid-course signature work (since the mid-course part of the flight gives the defense a longer time to act, if discriminants can be found for use by the defense); and
—survivability of space-based defensive components, especially sensors.
Bomb-driven X-ray lasers could be very effective because they could achieve very high brightness and medium beam width. But they are at such an early stage that the program, while deserving support, should be confined to demonstration of those two features. Rail guns may be useful but only if they meet very ambitious goals for speed, mass and multi-shot capability. Even then, conventional rockets accelerated to equally high speeds (and with correspondingly heavy propellant weight) may be competitive with rail guns; but neither is likely to be cost-effective.
Demonstrating the technology to achieve the above goals for X-ray lasers and rail guns should precede any consideration of a systems effort for them.
In the light of the considerations set forth, what should be the emphasis of the SDI program? What should be the balance among systems design, component development, experimental demonstrations, and technology? What should be deemphasized or eliminated? These questions become more acute in the light of the substantial reductions in the funding of the research and development program from the proposals formulated in the Fletcher Committee Report of 1983. Though congressionally approved funding is likely to exceed $2.5 billion in the current fiscal year, the scope of the program is so ambitious that schedules set only a year ago for systems decisions appear to be slipping, and some difficult choices about priorities will have to be made.
It would seem appropriate to emphasize technology that still needs to be proven and developed, rather than "spectacular" demonstrations—though at some point demonstrations would be needed to test the technology. Some technologies are sufficiently demonstrated, and the corresponding systems concepts sufficiently clear, so that engineering development could begin on them relatively soon. But doing so would make sense only after a decision as to the detailed nature and function of the defensive system.
1. Work is indicated to define the design of a ground-based terminal defense system, which could stand by itself or be a layer of a multilayer strategic defense system. This would involve updating the Spartan and Sprint missiles, and beginning work on the design of a non-nuclear interceptor. This system should have the capability of being deployed as a defense of the U.S. ICBM force, as well as serving as a component of a population defense if that should ever prove feasible.
Initiation of full-scale engineering development for such terminal defenses should be deferred for several years. This would allow two prior determinations. One is the technical and military feasibility (and political acceptability) of less vulnerable modes of ICBM deployment. The second is whether mutual reductions in the size of strategic offensive forces can be negotiated, to reduce the need for active defense of ICBMs. An appropriate schedule would be to get the technology ready for a possible 1988 initiation of full-scale engineering development, and a start of deployment in the 1993 time frame if such a decision is taken.
2. Space-based kinetic-energy weapons appear unpromising in the light of the almost certain offensive countermeasures, and therefore should be deemphasized, even though such a system is the only space-based one that could be reasonably well specified today. By the same logic, it would make sense to delay a decision on detailed specification of and initiation of full-scale engineering development on any boost-phase intercept system until 1994 or 1995. By that time enough ought to be known about the technology of the various directed-energy weapons to allow a more informed choice among them.
3. A full-scale technology program (phasing into development as particular technologies reach that stage) on boost-phase surveillance, mid-course surveillance and tracking is fully warranted. Boost-phase surveillance capabilities will augment early warning of attack; mid-course surveillance and tracking will augment attack assessment capabilities. These functions are justified even in the absence of a decision to proceed with active defense of population. Like the terminal defense development activities, they are consistent with restrictive interpretations of the ABM treaty. But they would also constitute the eyes of a strategic defense of population or of military forces against ballistic missile attack, should such a defense be decided upon.
4. A full program on adaptive optics, phase compensation and phase conjugation devices, phased-array lasers and related optical technology should be emphasized strongly, since obtaining the brightness and beam accuracies required for effectiveness even in the absence of offensive countermeasures depends strongly on these technologies.
5. The electromagnetic rail gun, bomb-driven X-ray laser, and (probably) neutral particle beam programs all belong in the preliminary technology stage. If they work they would be useful in specific functional areas of a strategic defense system, but they are in too preliminary a stage to justify putting them in the component development category.
6. The directed-energy weapons segment of the program should be tilted toward the excimer and (especially) free-electron lasers, with emphasis on ground basing the energy sources and consideration of space-based mirrors as the pointing mechanism. Work on space-based chemical lasers should emphasize ways of making them brighter—such as phased arrays—within the limitations imposed by space basing; it is probably too early to abandon chemical lasers completely.
This orientation of the program would, as a separate matter, delay conflict with the ABM treaty while permitting rapid development and even preliminary testing of technology. It corresponds to an acceptance of the judgment that the program dates are ambitious even for the more developed (and less promising) technologies, and concentrates on the less developed but more promising ones.
That approach would defer until after 1995 the decision on full-scale engineering development for the directed-energy boost-phase intercept segment of the program that could involve space-based components generating or transmitting very high energy densities. Such a schedule, however, might prompt concerns that it was so far in the future as to undermine congressional and public support for the program. But that factor works both ways. Though there is real public support for strategic defense, both the expert and congressional communities are doubtful about the vision of protecting populations from a nuclear attack by means other than deterrence through the threat of retaliation. They are also concerned about the potential negative effects of SDI on arms control. Moreover, even those defense tasks and system components that look most promising are subject to serious policy objections regarding their deployment or testing. Thus a sign of willingness to pursue a more modest track, with long-term goals, and more care about arms control, would probably favorably influence a decisive segment of congressional votes on program funding.
To sum up, the near-term prospects for ballistic missile defense capabilities are reasonably well known. Technically, they appear cost-effective for defense of some kinds of strategic retaliatory forces. For defense of populations against a responsive threat, they look poor through the year 2010 and beyond. The prognosis for the longer term for this latter objective in the contest between defense and offense is less certain. It still looks questionable, at best, for the defense, because of some fundamental problems of geometry and geography, and the physics of offensive countermeasures and defense suppression in their contest with defense.