Foreign Trade or Isolation?
A Trade Policy for the 1960s
Trade, Investment and Deindustrialization: Myth and Reality
Beyond Free Trade
Competitiveness: A Dangerous Obsession
Workers and the World Economy: Breaking the Postwar Bargain
Trade Policy for a Networked World
Toughest on the Poor: America's Flawed Tariff System
Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution?
Globalization and Unemployment
The Downside of Integrating Markets
Why the Negotiations Are Doomed and What We Should Do About It
The Truth About Trade
What Critics Get Wrong About the Global Economy
NAFTA's Economic Upsides
The View From the United States
Inequality and Globalization
How the Rich Get Richer as the Poor Catch Up
The Strategic Logic of Trade
New Rules of the Road for the Global Market
The TPP's Promise and Pitfalls
How to Free Trade
And Still Protect Democracy
A CONTROVERSY RECONSIDERED
In February 2004, when N. Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard professor then serving as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, caused a national uproar with a "textbook" statement about trade, economists rushed to his defense. Mankiw was commenting on the phenomenon that has been clumsily dubbed "offshoring" (or "offshore outsourcing") -- the migration of jobs, but not the people who perform them, from rich countries to poor ones. Offshoring, Mankiw said, is only "the latest manifestation of the gains from trade that economists have talked about at least since Adam Smith. ... More things are tradable than were tradable in the past, and that's a good thing." Although Democratic and Republican politicians alike excoriated Mankiw for his callous attitude toward American jobs, economists lined up to support his claim that offshoring is simply international business as usual.
Their economics were basically sound: the well-known principle of comparative advantage implies that trade in new kinds of products will bring overall improvements in productivity and well-being. But Mankiw and his defenders underestimated both the importance of offshoring and its disruptive effect on wealthy countries. Sometimes a quantitative change is so large that it brings about qualitative changes, as offshoring likely will. We have so far barely seen the tip of the offshoring iceberg, the eventual dimensions of which may be staggering.
To be sure, the furor over Mankiw's remark was grotesquely out of proportion to the current importance of offshoring, which is still largely a prospective phenomenon. Although there are no reliable national data, fragmentary studies indicate that well under a million service-sector jobs in the United States have been lost to offshoring to date. (A million seems impressive, but in the gigantic and rapidly churning U.S. labor market, a million jobs is less than two weeks' worth of normal gross job losses.) However, constant improvements in technology and global communications virtually guarantee that the future will bring much more offshoring of "impersonal services" -- that is, services that
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