But there is also evidence to support the view that the regime may be able to muddle through for quite a while. Xi and his government have plenty of assets as well as liabilities, including support from the mass public and key elite factions, vast foreign exchange reserves, a protected currency, control of the banking system, smart technocrats, a large real economy, and the absence of any significant opposition movement.
And it’s possible that the likeliest scenario will be neither crisis nor resilience but rather an eventual gradual political evolution, like those of other former authoritarian regimes dominated by a single party, such as Mexico or Taiwan.
Whatever China’s future holds, it should be fascinating to watch the drama play out. This package provides an accurate snapshot of the situation today—and the material to form educated guesses about what will come next.
Enjoy more high-quality articles like this one.
Become a subscriber.
- Paywall-free reading of new articles posted daily online and almost a century of archives
- Unlock access to iOS/Android apps to save editions for offline reading
- Six issues a year in print, online, and audio editions