Reinhard Krause / Reuters A spectator waves a Chinese flag in front of a statue of Chairman Mao Zedong in Kashgar, Xinjiang province, June 18, 2008.

Should Washington Fear the AIIB?

Foreign Affairs' Brain Trust Weighs In

We at Foreign Affairs have recently published a number of pieces on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Those articles sparked a heated debate, so we decided to ask a broad pool of experts to state whether they agree or disagree with the following statement and to rate their confidence level about that answer:

The AIIB represents the start of a fundamental challenge to the current global multilateral order.

Results:

Full Responses:

SALVATORE BABONES is Associate Professor of Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney, in Australia.
Agree, Confidence Level 6              

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is certainly the start of a challenge, but it is not necessarily an effective challenge. Its $100 billion capitalization was immediately topped by a Japanese counteroffer of $110 billion for Asian development projects.

IAN BREMMER is President of Eurasia Group and the author of Every Nation for Itself: What Happens When No One Leads the World.
Agree, Confidence Level 9              

China is the only major country in the world today with a global economic strategy. Beijing now intends to challenge the U.S.-led global economic order, while largely accepting the U.S.-dominated military status quo. The AIIB is one of many important pieces of this effort.

YUN-HAN CHU is Distinguished Research Fellow of the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica and Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University.
Strongly Agree, Confidence Level 9           

It represents a fundamental challenge to a U.S.-centered world order.

WARREN I. COHEN is Distinguished University Professor Emeritus at UMBC.
Agree, Confidence Level 8

The current order should be—and will be—changed. U.S. opposition to AIIB is foolish. It should participate and help steer changes in a salutary direction.

ALEXANDER COOLEY is Professor of Political Science at Barnard College.
Agree, Confidence Level 8              

The relationship between the AIIB and the future global multilateral order has been mostly conceptualized as a "top-down" issue—a function of the geopolitical agendas and strategies of major states. Accordingly, the decision of major

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