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The Security Risks of a Trade War With China

Why the U.S. Should Be Wary of Economic Decoupling

The Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Fitzgerald is shown on patrol in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of responsibility in support of security and stability in the Pacific Ocean, August 2013. U.S. Navy via REUTERS

Trade tensions between the United States and China continue to rise. In June, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration announced that it would impose tariffs of 25 percent on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports, with the first wave targeting some 800 goods worth $34 billion. China pushed back with its own set of tariffs targeting the U.S. agricultural sector and industrial heartland. In response, Trump has reportedly ordered his administration to consider a 25 percent tariff on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese exports. As the showdown escalates, many observers are understandably focused on the potential for a full-fledged trade war that could destabilize the world economy. But they should also consider second-order, longer-term implications—in the security realm. Up until recently, the two nations’ economic ties had served as an effective brake on escalating strategic distrust. A China less constrained by and invested in economic ties with the United States could

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