Will the Putin Regime Crumble?

Foreign Affairs' Brain Trust Weighs In

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during a meeting with journalists after a live broadcast nationwide call-in in Moscow, Russia, April 14, 2016. Maxim Shemetov / Reuters

The lead package of the May/June 2016 issue of Foreign Affairs, available on ForeignAffairs.com tomorrow, deals with Russia's future. To complement the individual articles, we decided to ask a broad pool of experts for their take. As with previous surveys, we approached dozens of authorities with deep specialized expertise relevant to the question at hand, together with a few leading generalists in the field. Participants were asked to state whether they agreed or disagreed with a proposition and to rate their confidence level in their opinion; the answers from those who responded are below:

Vladimir Putin will still be in control of Russia five years from now.


Putin Poll Results

Full Responses:

DMITRY ADAMSKY is Associate Professor at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy, and Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy, at the IDC Herzliya, Israel.
Agree, Confidence Level 8

IAN BREMMER is President of Eurasia Group.
Strongly Agree, Confidence Level 9 Russian President Vladimir Putin has consolidated more personal power over the course of his presidency (and brief premiership) than any other leader of a major economy. Short of a black-swan event, it is very hard to see his displacement.

IVO H. DAALDER is President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and was U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO from 2009 to 2013.
Agree, Confidence Level 8

KEITH DARDEN is Associate Professor in the School of International Service at American University.
Agree, Confidence Level 4 Putin is likely to remain in power for three reasons: his successful institutionalization of political control in Russia, his political skill, and the absence of viable alternative leadership. The state, the media, and the predominant sources of wealth are directly or indirectly under Kremlin control. The potential base of political opposition has largely exited the country, and those who remain are cautious. Putin has demonstrated an ability to consolidate power, manage public opinion, and eliminate potential threats to his rule.

There are segments of the economic elite that are unhappier than they have been in some

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