TO GAIN an idea of the future of the Spanish Republic we must examine the various ideological tendencies of the social and political forces now struggling to dominate and transform it. As a point of departure for our study we shall analyze the state of these forces in November and December of 1933, because two events of extraordinary importance took place during those two months: the second general election of the Republic and the fourth anarcho-syndicalist insurrection to occur since the fall of the monarchy.
Superficially, the elections (which took place, first on November 19, and secondly on December 3) would seem to spell a disaster for the Republic which was declared under such smiling auspices on April 14, 1931. In the constituent assembly elected in June of that year the non-republican parties of the Right -- the Agrarian Party, the Basque Nationalists, etc. -- had some 30 deputies. In the new Cortes they have 200 out of a total of 473. The republican parties of the Left -- Radical-Socialists, Acción Republicana, Federalists and Regionalists of Catalonia and Galicia -- which counted some 130 deputies in the constituent assembly, returned only about 30 to the new parliament. Four ministers found themselves without seats. The Socialists had 70 deputies, scarcely more than half the number in the first parliament. Alone the Radical Party, commanded by Señor Lerroux, preserved and even somewhat augmented its original strength.
What is the explanation of so profound a change of public opinion? The explanation is very simple: the change is more apparent than real, as will be seen when we analyze the election results, and in any case is much less than the change which previously occurred in the parties themselves and in their relations with one another. First, I shall set forth some preliminaries.
In 1931, the old monarchist oligarchies and their cacique organizations throughout the countryside, frightened by the sudden advent of the Republic and by certain acts of popular violence, such as the burning of convents, allowed the electorate to vote as it pleased
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