INSTABILITY has been characteristic of the population of Hawaii for at least half a century. Among the factors chiefly responsible may be named the great decrease in the native Hawaiian population and its partial amalgamation with Caucasian and Asiatic elements, the importation of laborers from many countries, the rapid increase by births of certain foreign peoples, and the departure of many laborers to the mainland of the United States and of others to their native lands. Considerable interest attaches to the question of Hawaii's future population. Doubtless migration to and from the Territory will eventually be a less important factor and the population will gradually become more stable. What will this population be?
Just now the prediction is frequently made that, unless some special device be introduced to prevent it, the Japanese will soon form the majority of Hawaii's population. The following statistical study has been made in order to help in forming a just opinion as to the probable outcome of present tendencies and forces. The period under consideration, so far as the definite forecast is concerned, extends to 1941. It should be understood that the term "Japanese" as used herein includes, unless otherwise specified, all persons of Japanese descent, both native and foreign born; the terms "Chinese," "Portuguese," "Filipino," etc., are similarly used. The term "American and North European" includes American, British, German, and a few others, and corresponds to the definition "Other Caucasian" used in the census.
I. GROWTH OF THE POPULATION OF HAWAII BY RACIAL ELEMENTS
Table A shows the growth of the various population elements in Hawaii from 1896 down to the present year. The figures for 1923 are the estimates of the Territorial Bureau of Vital Statistics; they may be accepted as very accurate because arrivals and departures as well as births and deaths are matters of record and publicity.
A study of Table A on the next page reveals several most interesting phenomena.
The Chinese, the first of the labor groups to be brought to Hawaii, reached