Globalism Lives

China Won’t Overtake America Any Time Soon

The tower of the One World Trade Center in New York City, February 2016. Eduardo Munoz / Reuters

In Eric X. Lee's telling (The End of Globalism, December 9), the sovereign nation-state will soon regain its status as the primary unit of global governance. The United States is in decline and globalism, a strange 25-year aberration, is ending. China's rise could lead to a classic Thucydides Trap, a situation in which a hegemonic power fails to make way for a rising challenger and conflict ensues. The United States should recognize that the age of its empire is over and consolidate its status as one among many major powers in the world.

This analysis of the global order is commonplace in contemporary international relations theory. It is also wrong. To see why, just look at the last so-called Thucydides Trap, when the United Kingdom did not make room for a rising Germany. Germany's GDP surpassed Britain's around 1908, making it the heir presumptive to global hegemony and setting the stage for World War I. Britain did not accommodate Germany's desire for a place in the sun, and war ensued.

The story is compelling except for one small detail: by 1908, the U.S. economy was already larger than those of Germany and the United Kingdom combined. By 1920, it was roughly the size of Britain, Germany, France, and Italy put together. World War I was not a war for global dominance. It was a war for regional hegemony over Europe, the poorer, secondary core of the global economy. Even if Germany had won, it would still have been dwarfed by the United States.

In 2009, China overtook Japan to become the largest economy in East Asia and the second-largest in the world. It does not look set to overtake the American economy. In late 2015, after all, China's growth slowed to a trickle as its economy converged with those of other poorly-governed middle-income countries such as Brazil and Russia. Today, all of China's growth is coming from government deficit spending. That can't last forever.

China claims that its GDP grew exactly 6.7 percent in each of the

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