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John Mueller

Arms Control & Disarmament November/December 2018 Comment

Nuclear Weapons Don’t Matter

The impact of nuclear weapons on international affairs has been minor compared with the sums and words expended on them, but the costs resulting from the obsession...

John Mueller

On the warpath: U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell making the case for invading Iraq, 2003

Terrorism & Counterterrorism Aug 15, 2016 Snapshot

How Safe Are We?

“Are we safer?” might be the most common question asked about terrorism, but it is the wrong one. A better place to begin is with this question: “How safe are we?”

John Mueller and Mark Stewart

A member of the NYPD Joint Terrorism Task Force patrols in Times Square in the Manhattan borough in New York, March 22, 2016.

Terrorism & Counterterrorism Dec 10, 2015 Snapshot

Terrorism In the American Psyche

Increased spending on domestic homeland security since 9/11 has totaled well over $1 trillion, and efforts to chase down and eliminate terrorists abroad have cost...

John Mueller and Mark Stewart

People hold candles at a vigil in San Bernardino, California, December 7, 2015.

GW Bush Administration Jun 18, 2014 Postscript

Iraq Syndrome Redux

American foreign policy, routinely decorated with extravagant alarmism over the last dozen years or so, has been an abject failure. That is why it is a good thing that...

John Mueller

Combat boots bearing the names of some 800 U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq, May 25, 2004.

War & Military Strategy Apr 30, 2013 Snapshot

Erase the Red Line

Although chemical weapons are often considered weapons of mass destruction, they are not. In the case of sarin gas, many tons must be released under favorable...

John Mueller

Terrorism & Counterterrorism Aug 2, 2011 Snapshot

The Truth About al Qaeda

New information discovered in Osama bin Laden's hideout in Pakistan suggests that the United States has been vastly overstating al Qaeda's power for a full decade. The...

John Mueller

Terrorism - Foreign Affairs

Public Opinion Mar 28, 2011 Postscript

The Iraq Syndrome Revisited

Due to the U.S. experience in Iraq, Americans became skeptical of intervening in overseas conflicts. Much of this "Iraq syndrome" can be seen in the hesitant approach...

John Mueller

Libya - Foreign Affairs

Strategy & Conflict Apr 2, 2010 Snapshot

Hardly Existential

Many people hold that terrorism poses an existential threat to the United States. But a look at the actual statistics suggests that it presents an acceptable risk --...

John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart

Strategy & Conflict Apr 15, 2009 Snapshot

How Dangerous Are the Taliban?

The Taliban and al Qaeda may not pose enough of a threat to the United States to make a long war in Afghanistan worth the costs.

John Mueller

South Asia - Foreign Affairs

Terrorism & Counterterrorism September/October 2006 Comment

Is There Still a Terrorist Threat?: The Myth of the Omnipresent Enemy

Despite all the ominous warnings of wily terrorists and imminent attacks, there has been neither a successful strike nor a close call in the United States since 9/11....

John Mueller

Media January/February 2006 Response

The Cost of War

How Many Casualties Will Americans Tolerate?...

Christopher Gelpi and John Mueller

North Korea - Foreign Affairs

War & Military Strategy November/December 2005 Essay

The Iraq Syndrome

Public support for the war in Iraq has followed the same course as it did for the wars in Korea and Vietnam: broad enthusiasm at the outset with erosion of support...

John Mueller

North Korea - Foreign Affairs

Economics May/June 1999 Essay

Sanctions of Mass Destruction

As Cold War threats have diminished, so-called weapons of mass destruction -- nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and ballistic missiles -- have become the new...

John Mueller and Karl Mueller

Iraq - Foreign Affairs

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