A street vendor sells Turkish flags in Istanbul, January 2017.
Murad Sezer / Reuters

In an unverified recording released in November, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed caliph of the Islamic State (ISIS), demanded that his followers wage war against Turkey. “Turkey today entered your range of action and the aim of your jihad,” Baghdadi said to his loyalists, and further instructed them to “invade it and turn its safety into fear.” The declaration followed Ankara’s decision, in late August, to send troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria

Then, on New Year’s Eve, a gunman, allegedly affiliated with ISIS, killed 39 people and wounded dozens more in a shooting at a ritzy

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