In the long run, suggests Norway's leading oil analyst, rising prices may dampen oil demand and conjure up new energy supplies; but meanwhile both OECD and OPEC countries face much uncertainty and conflict as finite oil reserves are irrevocably depleted. Noreng's way across the valley of scarcity into the land of plenty is a global compact that would guarantee OECD countries steady energy supplies at only gradually rising prices and offer OPEC countries a chance to invest in, and profit from, the post-oil alternatives. Such broadly balanced advantages might well sustain Noreng's scheme - once governments summon up the vision to enter into it.