A prominent specialist on the Chinese economy is generally optimistic about the future. Writing before the dismissal of party leader Hu Yaobang, he sees a real and sustained effort to reform the economic system and no reason to believe that the reforms have lost their momentum. He foresees an annual average increase in GNP of six to eight percent over the next 15 years or more, leading to a major improvement in the standard of living, large-scale urbanization of the population, and traditional peasant virtues being put on the defensive permanently.