Incorrigible Optimist: A Political Memoir
“We study natural stupidity instead of artificial intelligence.” That was how Amos Tversky described his collaboration with Daniel Kahneman, a partnership between two Israeli psychologists that produced some of the twentieth century’s most important findings about how the mind works. Through a series of ingenious experiments, Kahneman and Tversky discovered systematic biases in the way humans estimate probabilities and, in so doing, revolutionized the study and practice of economics, medicine, law, and public policy. If Tversky had not died in 1996, at the age of 59, he would most likely have shared the Nobel Prize in Economics awarded to Kahneman in 2002.
Michael Lewis has written an original and absorbing account of the 20-yearpartnership and the ideas it generated. The author of such bestsellers as Liar’s Poker and Moneyball, Lewis discovered Kahneman and Tversky belatedly. Unbeknownst to him, they had provided the scientific basis for the phenomenon he chronicled in Moneyball—namely, how baseball scouts tended to eschew statistical indicators of a player’s past performance, relying instead on their subjective impressions of whether his look and build matched what they thought made a baseball player great. Kahneman and Tversky called this “the representativeness heuristic,” a cognitive shortcut used to assess events and individuals in terms of their fit with a preconceived notion. The problem, they found, was that this shortcut often led to errors. Moneyball told the story of how Billy Beane, the general manager of the Oakland A’s, built a winning team by doing away with intuition in favor of cold, hard statistics.
The truly novel aspect of Lewis’ book is the light it sheds on the circumstances of the Kahneman-Tversky partnership. A big part of the story concerns the role of praxis—real-world experience—in germinating great ideas. Kahneman and Tversky were deeply influenced by their experiences as Israelis; indeed, at times his account reads like a narrative of their ideas told through war, beginning with their childhoods in World War II and stretching through their involvement in four Arab-Israeli wars. But Lewis also delves into the fascinating psychological dynamics that made their partnership work. Drawing on extensive interviews with Kahneman himself and excellent access to Tversky’s papers and his wife, Barbara, Lewis was able to construct an account of the friendship that lays bare, warts and all, the emotions, intellectual intensity, and tensions behind their creativity. Read the full review.