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Review Essay

Beware of Historians Bearing False Analogies

In This Review

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000
By Paul Kennedy
Random House, 1987, 678 pp. $24.95 Purchase

Professor Kennedy, a British scholar translated to New Haven, has written a massive book around a grand theme: the relation between the rise and fall of major powers over the past five centuries and the shifts in their relative economic strength and technological virtuosity. It is both a work of historical analysis, in which the author seeks to discern recurrent patterns upon which to base defensible generalizations, and a policy prescription, notably for the United States. Understandably, it is the latter strand that is receiving current attention; but before examining Kennedy's advice it is worth surveying briefly the other dimensions of his work.

First comes a survey of the world scene circa 1500, with quick portraits of Ming China, the Muslim world including Mogul India, pre-Tokugawa and Tokugawa Japan, pre-Petrine Russia, and Europe before the rise of the modern nation-states. Kennedy then brings to the stage his succession of quasi-Wagnerian melodramas

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